An economic assessment of the impact of HIV/AIDS on the KwaZulu-Natal economy

George, Gavin and Gow, Jeff and Thurlow, James and Quinlan, Tim (2008) An economic assessment of the impact of HIV/AIDS on the KwaZulu-Natal economy. In: 17th International AIDS Conference (AIDS 2008): Universal Action Now, 3-8 Aug 2008, Mexico City, Mexico.

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Abstract

This study examined the impact of HIV/AIDS on the provincial economy of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa. Drawing on a new survey of HIV prevalence amongst workers in KZN firms, the authors developed a population/demographic model to capture the effects of AIDS on workers across different occupations. The results from the population/demographic model were then linked to a CGE-microsimulation model. The results from this economic model indicate a significant decline in both GDP and per capita GDP as a result of HIV/AIDS. By 2025, the KZN economy will be 43% smaller than it could have been were it not for HIV/AIDS. Similarly, the rest of the country's economy will be 37% smaller by 2025. The results also indicate that while the detrimental growth-effect is large, the impact of HIV/AIDS on regional poverty headcounts is relatively small and that inequality would be higher in the absence of HIV/AIDS. In fact, the absolute number of poor people in KZN would be higher by 662,000 people in 2025. However, the population/demographic model also predicts that 11.8 million people will die of HIV/AIDS in South Africa during 2002-2025; of these over 3 million will be in KZN. Furthermore, the incentive to mitigate the effects of HIV/AIDS lies not only with poorer households and those with infected members, but also with the uninfected and higher-income households, who stand to benefit from faster economic growth and rising incomes.


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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Poster)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Poster no: MOPE0636
Faculty / Department / School: Current - USQ Other
Date Deposited: 15 Aug 2013 01:32
Last Modified: 15 Aug 2013 01:32
Uncontrolled Keywords: South Africa; GDP; worker health; economic impact
Fields of Research : 14 Economics > 1402 Applied Economics > 140211 Labour Economics
14 Economics > 1402 Applied Economics > 140202 Economic Development and Growth
16 Studies in Human Society > 1603 Demography > 160304 Mortality
Socio-Economic Objective: B Economic Development > 91 Economic Framework > 9102 Microeconomics > 910208 Micro Labour Market Issues
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/8358

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