Forecasting shares for multiple purchases: towards a test of the new individual-level multinomial probit

Winzar, Hume and Bloxsome, Ellen and Mills, Michael K. (2004) Forecasting shares for multiple purchases: towards a test of the new individual-level multinomial probit. In: ANZMAC 2004: Marketing Accountabilities and Responsibilities, 29 Nov - 1 Dec 2004, Wellington, New Zealand.

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We report on a field test of a new Individual-level Multinomial Probit (IMNP) model that applies to stated preference data gathered at the level of the individual consumer. Instead of inferring a covariance matrix of brand alternatives from a large sample of revealed preferences at the group level, this approach derives a covariance matrix from brand attribute similarities, weighted by the attribute importances for each consumer. The proposed IMNP simulator is not subject to the problem of Independence from Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA). Results from a Monte Carlo simulation show that the simulator performs as well as or better than the traditional Maximum Utility Rule (MUR) in ordinary situations, but is particularly useful with small samples. The simulator lends itself to forecasting shares for product assortments and frequently repurchased product classes. The paper outlines the new IMNP and reports on preliminary steps of a field test of the model, testing forecasting accuracy of students’ preferences of confectionary in product assortment selection and repeat purchase situations.

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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Paper)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Authors retain copyright.
Faculty / Department / School: Historic - Faculty of Business - Department of Marketing and Tourism
Date Deposited: 16 May 2010 05:58
Last Modified: 02 Jul 2013 23:49
Uncontrolled Keywords: conjoint analysis, multinomial probit, preference simulator, choice simulator,product assortment
Fields of Research : 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services > 1505 Marketing > 150599 Marketing not elsewhere classified
Socio-Economic Objective: B Economic Development > 91 Economic Framework > 9104 Management and Productivity > 910403 Marketing

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