System dynamics modelling to assess the impact of renewable energy systems and energy efficiency on the performance of the energy sector

Laimon, Mohamd and Mai, Thanh and Goh, Steven ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8583-4586 and Yusaf, Talal (2022) System dynamics modelling to assess the impact of renewable energy systems and energy efficiency on the performance of the energy sector. Renewable Energy, 193. pp. 1041-1048. ISSN 0960-1481


Abstract

Sustainable development of the inherently complex nature of the energy sector requires a comprehensive understanding of its components and their dynamic interactions. In this study, we employ a system dynamics approach to examine the impact of renewable energy systems and energy efficiency on the performance of the energy sector, and apply this, as a case study example, to the Australian energy sector. Our results show that improving only 1% of energy efficiency would result in 101k/331k GWh energy productivity (5% and 14% of total energy consumption) and reduce domestic CO2 emissions by 15.3/50 Mt CO2-e (4% and 10% of total domestic emissions) by 2030/2050. Switching to renewable energy for transportation and therefore saving 5% per year of current oil consumption may decrease dependency on oil to half by 2030 and to zero by 2050, and reduce domestic CO2 emissions by 74.1/198 Mt CO2-e (18% and 41% of total domestic emissions). Switching to renewable electricity by 3% annually may lead to 60.8/129 Mt CO2-e reduction in domestic CO2 emissions (15% and 27% of total domestic emissions) by 2030/2050. Electrification of other sectors, mainly the manufacturing sector, increasing the use of renewable energy by 4% annually, may lead to 43.3/106 Mt CO2-e reduction in domestic CO2 emissions (11% and 22% of total domestic emissions) by 2030/2050. Improving energy efficiency, switching to renewable energy for transportation, switching to renewable electricity, electrification of sectors that do not currently run on electricity with the use of renewable energy could achieve zero domestic CO2 emissions by 2050 while energy consumption stays almost stable (0.5%/year). This process may be accelerated by improving energy efficiency by more than 1%.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (1 Aug 2018 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current – Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Engineering (1 Jan 2022 -)
Date Deposited: 24 May 2022 04:02
Last Modified: 24 May 2022 04:02
Uncontrolled Keywords: CO2 emission, Energy consumption, energy dependency, energy policy, energy security, sustainable development
Fields of Research (2020): 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation > 410103 Human impacts of climate change and human adaptation
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1902 Environmental policy, legislation and standards > 190209 Sustainability indicators
17 ENERGY > 1705 Environmentally sustainable energy activities > 170599 Environmentally sustainable energy activities not elsewhere classified
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.05.041
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/48532

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