A probabilistic method for forensic cost estimating of infrastructure projects

Signor, Regis and Love, Peter E. D. and Olatunji, Oluwole ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9726-4218 and Marchiori, Fernanda F. and Gripp, William G. (2016) A probabilistic method for forensic cost estimating of infrastructure projects. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 40 (21-22). pp. 9197-9211. ISSN 0307-904X


To determine the existence of overpricing in infrastructure projects a deterministic approach has been typically used by the Brazilian Federal Police. Yet, Judges have often found it too difficult to determine if overpricing had occurred as contractors have tended to claim their projects were ‘unique’ and therefore subjected to price increases. Consequently, Judges have had to consider the likelihood of an error occurring, which has more often led to application of the in dubio pro reo principle. To address the pervasive issue of overpricing in Brazilian infrastructure projects, a novel and robust probabilistic method that utilizes ‘distribution fitting’ using empirical data to forensically determine its occurrence is presented. Considering the limited research that has examined forensic cost estimating in construction, it is promulgated that the proposed approach can be used to support the legal fraternities worldwide to obtain a criminal conviction for overpricing of public infrastructure projects.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 04 May 2022 05:08
Last Modified: 16 May 2022 02:08
Uncontrolled Keywords: Brazil; Corruption; Forensics cost estimating; Infrastructure; Overpricing; Probability distribution
Fields of Research (2020): 33 BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN > 3302 Building > 330299 Building not elsewhere classified
33 BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN > 3302 Building > 330207 Quantity surveying
33 BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN > 3302 Building > 330203 Building industry studies
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 12 CONSTRUCTION > 1299 Other construction > 129999 Other construction not elsewhere classified
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2016.05.025
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/48112

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