Hydrogen Energy Demand Growth Prediction and Assessment (2021–2050) Using a System Thinking and System Dynamics Approach

Yusaf, Talal and Laimon, Mohamd and Alrefae, Waleed and Kadirgama, Kumaran and Al Dhahad, Hayder and Ramasamy, Devarajan and Kamarulzaman, Mohd Kamal and Yousif, Belal ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3847-5469 (2022) Hydrogen Energy Demand Growth Prediction and Assessment (2021–2050) Using a System Thinking and System Dynamics Approach. Applied Sciences, 12 (2):781. pp. 1-16.

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Abstract

Adoption of hydrogen energy as an alternative to fossil fuels could be a major step towards decarbonising and fulfilling the needs of the energy sector. Hydrogen can be an ideal alternative for many fields compared with other alternatives. However, there are many potential environmental challenges that are not limited to production and distribution systems, but they also focus on how hydrogen is used through fuel cells and combustion pathways. The use of hydrogen has received little attention in research and policy, which may explain the widely claimed belief that nothing but water is released as a by-product when hydrogen energy is used. We adopt systems thinking and system dynamics approaches to construct a conceptual model for hydrogen energy, with a special focus on the pathways of hydrogen use, to assess the potential unintended consequences, and possible interventions; to highlight the possible growth of hydrogen energy by 2050. The results indicate that the combustion pathway may increase the risk of the adoption of hydrogen as a combustion fuel, as it produces NOx, which is a key air pollutant that causes environmental deterioration, which may limit the application of a combustion pathway if no intervention is made. The results indicate that the potential range of global hydrogen demand is rising, ranging from 73 to 158 Mt in 2030, 73 to 300 Mt in 2040, and 73 to 568 Mt in 2050, depending on the scenario presented.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current – Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Engineering (1 Jan 2022 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Advanced Engineering and Space Sciences - Centre for Future Materials (1 Jan 2017 -)
Date Deposited: 01 Mar 2022 02:46
Last Modified: 01 Mar 2022 02:46
Uncontrolled Keywords: Emissions; Hydrogen combustion pathway; Hydrogen demand; Hydrogen energy; Hydrogen fuel cell pathway; Nitrogen oxides; Renewable alternative fuel; System dynamics; Systems thinking
Fields of Research (2008): 09 Engineering > 0913 Mechanical Engineering > 091305 Energy Generation, Conversion and Storage Engineering
02 Physical Sciences > 0201 Astronomical and Space Sciences > 020106 High Energy Astrophysics; Cosmic Rays
09 Engineering > 0906 Electrical and Electronic Engineering > 090608 Renewable Power and Energy Systems Engineering (excl. Solar Cells)
Fields of Research (2020): 40 ENGINEERING > 4017 Mechanical engineering > 401703 Energy generation, conversion and storage (excl. chemical and electrical)
40 ENGINEERING > 4004 Chemical engineering > 400402 Chemical and thermal processes in energy and combustion
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/app12020781
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/46787

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