The Influence of Interannual and Decadal Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Australian Monsoon Rainfall

Heidemann, Hanna and Ribbe, Joachim ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6749-1228 and Cowan, Tim and Henley, Benjamin J. and Pudmenzky, Christa and Stone, Roger and Cobon, David H. (2022) The Influence of Interannual and Decadal Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Australian Monsoon Rainfall. Journal of Climate, 35 (1). pp. 425-444. ISSN 0894-8755

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Abstract

Monsoonal rainfall in northern Australia (AUMR) varies substantially on interannual, decadal, and longer time scales, profoundly impacting natural systems and agricultural communities. Some of this variability arises in response to sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Indo-Pacific linked to both El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Here we use observations to investigate unresolved issues regarding the influence of the IPO and ENSO on AUMR. Specifically, we show that during negative IPO phases, central Pacific (CP) El Niño events are associated with below-average rainfall over northeast Australia, an anomalous anticyclonic pattern to the northwest of Australia, and eastward moisture advection toward the date line. In contrast, CP La Niña events (distinct from eastern Pacific La Niña events) during negative IPO phases drive significantly wet conditions over much of northern Australia, a strengthened Walker circulation, and large-scale moisture flux convergence. During positive IPO phases, the impact of CP El Niño and CP La Niña events on AUMR is weaker. The influence of central Pacific SSTs on AUMR has been stronger during the recent (post-1999) negative IPO phase. The extent to which this strengthening is associated with climate change or merely natural internal variability is not known.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: © 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current – Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Mathematics, Physics and Computing (1 Jan 2022 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current – Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Mathematics, Physics and Computing (1 Jan 2022 -)
Date Deposited: 04 Jan 2022 22:56
Last Modified: 20 Sep 2022 06:45
Uncontrolled Keywords: Australia; Atmosphere-ocean interaction; ENSO; Monsoons; Pacific decadal oscillation; Rainfall; Sea surface temperature; Climate variability; Decadal variability
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl.Climate Change Processes)
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370202 Climatology
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960307 Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts)
D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960304 Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts)
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190502 Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/45690

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