Limits to predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model due to atmospheric noise

Kleeman, Richard and Power, Scott B. (1994) Limits to predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model due to atmospheric noise. Tellus, Series A, 46 (4). pp. 529-540. ISSN 0280-6495


A coupled-ocean atmosphere model with demonstrated skill in ENSO prediction is used to examine limits to predictability due to stochastic momentum forcing from the atmosphere. Previous estimates of predictability limits in coupled models may be overly optimistic because of the absence of realistic atmospheric noise in the intermediate atmospheric model used. It is found that unavoidable error grows rapidly with a time scale of 4 or so months. It then saturates at a level around 0.5°C for the Nino 3 region.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Copyright © Munksgaard, 1994.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 07 Jan 2022 00:53
Last Modified: 07 Jan 2022 01:39
Uncontrolled Keywords: ENSO; atmosphere; ocean
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl.Climate Change Processes)
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370201 Climate change processes
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960304 Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts)
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190502 Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
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