Near-term climate change: projections and predictability

Kirtman, Ben and Power, Scott B. and Adedoyin, Akintayo John and Boer, George J. and Bojariu, Roxana and Camilloni, Ines and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco and Fiore, Arlene M. and Kimoto, Masahide and Meehl, Gerald and Prather, Michael and Sarr, Abdoulaye and Schar, Christoph and Sutton, Rowan and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Vecchi, Gabriel and Wang, Hui-Jun (2013) Near-term climate change: projections and predictability. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, pp. 953-1028. ISBN 9781107057999

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Abstract

[Executive Summary] This chapter assesses the scientific literature describing expectations for near-term climate (present through mid-century). Unless otherwise stated, ‘near-term' change and the projected changes below are for the period 2016-2035 relative to the reference period 1986-2005. Atmospheric composition (apart from CO2; see Chapter 12) and air quality projections through to 2100 are also assessed. Decadal Prediction. The nonlinear and chaotic nature of the climate system imposes natual limits on the extent to which skilful predictions of climate statistics may be made. M.del-based ‘predictability' studies, which probe these limits and investigate the physical mechanisms involved, support the potential for the skilful prediction of annual to decadal average temperature and, to a lesser extent precipitation. Predictions for averages of temperature, over large regions of the planet and for the global mean, exhibit positive skill when verified against observations for forecast periods up to ten years (high confidence). Predictions of precipitation over some land areas also exhibit positive skill. Decadal prediction is a new endeavour in climate science. The level of quality for climate predictions of annual to decadal average quantities is assessed from the past performance of initialized predictions and non-initialized simulations. 11.2.3, Figures 11.3 and 11.4 . In current results, observation-based initialization is the dominant contributor to the skill of predictions of annual mean temperature for the first few years and to the skill of predictions of the global mean surface temperature and the temperature over the North Atlantic, regions of the South Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean for longer periods (high confidence).


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Item Type: Book Chapter (Commonwealth Reporting Category B)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 18 Feb 2022 06:02
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2022 03:05
Uncontrolled Keywords: near-term climate change
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370201 Climate change processes
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960310 Global Effects of Climate Change and Variability (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) ""
D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960304 Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts)
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190507 Global effects of climate change (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) (excl. social impacts)
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.023
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/44874

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