Seasonal climate influences on the timing of the Australian monsoon onset

Lisonbee, Joel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8231-6548 and Ribbe, Joachim (2021) Seasonal climate influences on the timing of the Australian monsoon onset. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2 (2). pp. 489-506.

[img]
Preview
Text (Published Version)
LisonbeeAndRibbe2021.pdf
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

Download (883kB) | Preview

Abstract

The timing of the first monsoon burst of the season, or the monsoon onset, can be a critical piece of information for agriculture, fire management, water management, and emergency response in monsoon regions. Why do some monsoon seasons start earlier or later than others? Previous research has investigated the impact of climate influences such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on monsoon variability, but most studies have considered only the impact on rainfall and not the timing of the onset. While this question could be applied to any monsoon system, this research presented in this paper has focused on the Australian monsoon. Even with the wealth of research available on the variability of the Australian monsoon season, the timing of the monsoon onset is one aspect of seasonal variability that still lacks skilful seasonal prediction. To help us better understand the influence of large-scale climate drivers on monsoon onset timing, we recreated 11 previously published Australian monsoon onset datasets and extended these to all cover the same period from the 1950/1951 through the 2020/2021 Australian wet seasons. The extended datasets were then tested for correlations with several standard climate indices to identify which climate drivers could be used as predictors for monsoon onset timing. The results show that many of the relationships between monsoon onset dates and ENSO that were previously published are not as strong when considering the extended datasets. Only a strong La Niña pattern usually has an impact on monsoon onset timing, while ENSO-neutral and El Niño patterns lacked a similar relationship. Detrended Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) data showed a weak relationship with monsoon onset dates, but when the trend in the IOD data is retained, the relationship with onset dates diminishes. Other patterns of climate variability showed little relationship with Australian monsoon onset dates. Since ENSO is a tropical climate process with global impacts, it is prudent to further re-examine its influences in other monsoon regions too, with the aim to evaluate and improve previously established prediction methodologies.


Statistics for USQ ePrint 43454
Statistics for this ePrint Item
Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: © Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Sciences (6 Sep 2019 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Sciences (6 Sep 2019 -)
Date Deposited: 31 Aug 2021 04:32
Last Modified: 31 Aug 2021 04:32
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040107 Meteorology
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl.Climate Change Processes)
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370202 Climatology
37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3701 Atmospheric sciences > 370105 Atmospheric dynamics
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9602 Atmosphere and Weather > 960202 Atmospheric Processes and Dynamics
D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960304 Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts)
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190502 Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1904 Natural hazards > 190401 Climatological hazards (e.g. extreme temperatures, drought and wildfires)
19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1904 Natural hazards > 190405 Meteorological hazards (e.g. cyclones and storms)
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-489-2021
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/43454

Actions (login required)

View Item Archive Repository Staff Only