System dynamics model to determine concession period of PPP infrastructure projects: overarching effects of critical success factors

Ullah, Fahim ORCID: and Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin and Sepasgozar, Samad M. E. and Forcada, Nuria (2018) System dynamics model to determine concession period of PPP infrastructure projects: overarching effects of critical success factors. Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction, 10 (4):04518022. ISSN 1943-4162


The determination of the concession period (CP) in public–private partnership (PPP) infrastructure projects presents complexities to decision makers because various critical success factors (CSF) are involved which may be overlooked. This paper outlines a system dynamics (SD)-based approach to provide an in-depth understanding of CSFs that determines PPP projects’ CP and models them for localized use. The CSFs are obtained from published literature, duly vetted through a survey of 56 experts, and used to develop a quantitative and qualitative SD model, validated by simulating case studies of five infrastructure projects. A total of 59 concession-affecting CSFs are highlighted that are reduced and compared for localized infrastructure projects. The findings indicate that CP should be dynamic instead of fixed and static, and warrant an extension of the originally proposed concession in three cases and reduction in the remaining two. The decision-making implications of this study target the three key stakeholders: the public body through reduced financial risks, the private organization through increased confidence and reassessment of concession during project life, and the end user through nominal tolls.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to Published version in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 02 Aug 2021 04:58
Last Modified: 01 Sep 2021 00:14
Uncontrolled Keywords: concession period; critical success factors; infrastructure projects; public-private partnership
Fields of Research (2008): 12 Built Environment and Design > 1202 Building > 120201 Building Construction Management and Project Planning
Fields of Research (2020): 33 BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN > 3302 Building > 330201 Automation and technology in building and construction
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