Extended seasonal prediction of precipitation in Fiji

Walsh, Kevin J.E. and Bettio, Lynette and Power, Scott and Fawcett, Robert and Pahalad, Janita (2001) Extended seasonal prediction of precipitation in Fiji. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 50 (3). pp. 195-203. ISSN 0004-9743


Abstract

A seasonal rainfall forecasting scheme for Fiji is currently operational, taking advantage of strong relationships between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and rainfall in Fiji. In this scheme, the three-month mean of the SOI is used to forecast the immediately following three-month total rainfall (e.g. July-September SOI predicting October-December rainfall). In the present study, exploratory data analysis is undertaken using correlation coefficients to determine whether this forecast lead-time can be increased. Strong correlations are demonstrated out to four months in advance for some periods of the year. Correlation coefficients between equatorial sea-surface temperatures and Fiji rainfall are found to be higher in many periods of the year than those between SOI and rainfall. The hindcast skill of a seasonal prediction scheme was then evaluated for lead-times longer than the currently operational scheme. Strong skill was shown several months in advance for a few periods of the year, for both predictions based on the SOI and on equatorial sea-surface temperatures. This suggests that the current operational scheme could usefully be extended out to longer lead-times. For forecasts of the wet season rainfall as a whole, substantial skill was shown in one region of Fiji for predictions made as much as four months in advance.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 06 Jan 2022 04:47
Last Modified: 06 Jan 2022 04:47
Uncontrolled Keywords: Fiji; seasonal rainfall; Southern Oscillation Index
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl.Climate Change Processes)
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370201 Climate change processes
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960301 Climate Change Adaptation Measures
D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960304 Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts)
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190502 Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190501 Climate change models
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/42459

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