Making climate model forecasts more useful

Power, S. B. and Plummer, N. and Alford, P. (2007) Making climate model forecasts more useful. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, 58 (10). pp. 945-951. ISSN 0004-9409


Abstract

There is considerable potential for seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts derived from dynamic models of the earth's climate to be used widely to help improve management of important real-world issues in a variety of different areas (e.g. disaster management, agriculture, water management, health, natural resource management, food security, and insurance). Unfortunately, several factors currently inhibit this potential, e.g. low skill, low awareness, mismatches in what model forecasts can provide and what users need, and the complexity and probabilistic nature of the information provided. Substantial effort around the world is currently directed towards reducing these impediments. For example, climate model development continues behind the scenes, and techniques such as multi-model ensemble forecasting are progressing rapidly. Communication strategies that enable probabilistic information to be communicated more effectively have been developed and exciting developments such as the emergence of the Argo float program have dramatically improved our ability to initialise forecast systems. We can also look forward to greater computing power in the future, which will allow us to increase the resolution of the models used to perform forecasts. Research on the integration of climate forecasts with risk-management tools more useful to managers is also occurring. The great potential for much wider use of climate model forecasting cannot be denied. However, it will only be realised if models continue to be developed further, if climatic variability continues to be closely monitored from the surface, the atmosphere, the ocean, and from space, and if these data are made readily available to the research community. © CSIRO 2007.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: © CSIRO 2007. Published version deposited in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 11 Nov 2021 06:09
Last Modified: 11 Nov 2021 06:12
Uncontrolled Keywords: natural disasters; drought; climate risk management; inter-annual prediction; climate scenarios; adaptation strategies
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
Fields of Research (2020): 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation > 410199 Climate change impacts and adaptation not elsewhere classified
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960301 Climate Change Adaptation Measures
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1901 Adaptation to climate change > 190199 Adaptation to climate change not elsewhere classified
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1071/AR06196
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/42455

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