Past and future changes to inflows into Perth (Western Australia) dams

Smith, Ian and Power, Scott (2014) Past and future changes to inflows into Perth (Western Australia) dams. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2. pp. 84-96.

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© 2014 The Authors.Study region: The city of Perth is located within the region referred to as south-west Western Australia (SWWA) defined as southwest of a line connecting 30°. S, 115°. E and 35°. S, 120°. E. Study focus: SWWA has experienced a prolonged decline in rainfall since the early 1970s accompanied by serious reductions to inflows into the major storage systems. Consequent research questions include: What caused the decline in rainfall? Why have inflows decreased so dramatically? What can be expected over the coming decades? In this study, we consider these questions making use of recent observations and the latest generation of climate model results which attempt to simulate the effects of increased greenhouse gas concentrations. New hydrological insights for the region under study: Recent observations show a continuation of dry conditions and confirm that a significant change in the relationship between rainfall and inflows appears to have occurred. There is little evidence that increasing local temperatures alone can explain this changed relationship which possibly represents long-term physical changes (e.g. groundwater levels) to the catchments. There is a strong consensus amongst recent model results that rainfall will decline further by the end of the 21st century. While this confirms findings from studies of previous model results, for the purposes of better estimating future changes to inflows it may now be more important to understand the reasons for the changed rainfall/inflows relationship.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: © 2014 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access articleunder the CC BY-NC-ND license(
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 23 Nov 2021 04:46
Last Modified: 23 Nov 2021 04:46
Uncontrolled Keywords: catchments; inflows; projections; rainfall; temperature
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience > 040603 Hydrogeology
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370201 Climate change processes
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9606 Environmental and Natural Resource Evaluation > 960611 Urban Water Evaluation (incl. Water Quality)
D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960307 Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts)
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190504 Effects of climate change on Australia (excl. social impacts)
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