Multiyear variability in the Tasman Sea and impacts on Southern hemisphere climate in CMIP5 models

Chung, Christine T. Y. and Power, Scott B. and Santoso, Agus and Wang, Guomin (2017) Multiyear variability in the Tasman Sea and impacts on Southern hemisphere climate in CMIP5 models. Journal of Climate, 30 (12). pp. 4413-4427. ISSN 0894-8755

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Abstract

Naturally occurring multiyear to decadal variability is evident in rainfall, temperature, severe weather, and flood frequency around the globe. It is therefore important to understand the cause of this variability and the extent to which it can be predicted. Here internally generated decadal climate variability and its predictability potential in an ensemble of CMIP5 models are assessed. Global hot spots of subsurface ocean decadal variability are identified, revealing variability in the southern Tasman Sea that is coherent with variability in much of the Pacific Ocean and Southern Hemisphere. It is found that subsurface temperature variability in the southern Tasman Sea primarily arises in response to preceding changes in Southern Hemisphere winds. This variability is multiyear to decadal in character and is coherent with surface temperature in parts of the Southern Hemisphere up to several years later. This provides some degree of potential predictability to surface temperature in the southern Tasman Sea and surrounding regions. A few models exhibit significant correlation between subsurface variability in the southern Tasman Sea and zonally averaged precipitation south of 50°S; however, the multimodel mean does not exhibit any significant correlation between subsurface variability and precipitation. Models that exhibit stronger subsurface variability in the southern Tasman Sea also have a stronger interdecadal Pacific oscillation signal in the Pacific.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Published version deposited in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 11 Oct 2021 02:44
Last Modified: 20 Oct 2021 00:18
Uncontrolled Keywords: meteorology; atmospheric properties; oceanography; materials science; weather and climate forecasting; air-sea interaction; atmosphere-ocean interactions; climate variability; decadal climate variability; decadal variability; general circulation model; inter-decadal pacific oscillations; subsurface temperature; surface temperatures
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl.Climate Change Processes)
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370202 Climatology
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960304 Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts)
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190502 Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0862.1
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/42413

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