El Nino-Southern oscillation and associated climatic conditions around the world during the latter half of the twenty-first century

Power, Scott B. and Delage, Francois P.D. (2018) El Nino-Southern oscillation and associated climatic conditions around the world during the latter half of the twenty-first century. Journal of Climate, 31 (15). pp. 6189-6207. ISSN 0894-8755


Abstract

Increases in greenhouse gas emissions are expected to cause changes both in climatic variability in the Pacific linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and in long-term average climate. While mean state and variability changes have been studied separately, much less is known about their combined impact or relative importance. Additionally, studies of projected changes in ENSO have tended to focus on changes in, or adjacent to, the Pacific. Here we examine projected changes in climatic conditions during El Niño years and in ENSO-driven precipitation variability in 36 CMIP5 models. The models are forced according to the RCP8.5 scenario in which there are large, unmitigated increases in greenhouse gas concentrations during the twenty-first century. We examine changes over much of the globe, including 25 widely spread regions defined in the IPCC special report Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). We confirm that precipitation variability associated with ENSO is projected to increase in the tropical Pacific, consistent with earlier research. We also find that the enhanced tropical Pacific variability drives ENSO-related variability increases in 19 SREX regions during DJF and in 18 during JJA. This externally forced increase in ENSO-driven precipitation variability around the world is on the order of 15%-20%. An increase of this size, although substantial, is easily masked at the regional level by internally generated multidecadal variability in individual runs. The projected changes in El Niño-driven precipitation variability are typically much smaller than projected changes in both mean state and ENSO neutral conditions in nearly all regions.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to Published version in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 08 Oct 2021 03:15
Last Modified: 04 Apr 2022 08:04
Uncontrolled Keywords: meteorology; air pollution sources; FLUIDEX; related topics; climate change; climate; climate change adaptation; climate variability; climatic conditions; climatic variability; ENSO; multidecadal variability; precipitation variability; Southern oscillation; atmosphere
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370202 Climatology
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960304 Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts)
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190502 Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0138.1
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/42408

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