Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C

Smith, D. M. and Scaife, A. A. and Hawkins, E. and Bilbao, R. and Boer, G. J. and Caian, M. and Caron, L.-P. and Danabasoglu, G. and Delworth, T. and Doblas-Reyes, F. J. and Doescher, R. and Dunstone, N. J. and Eade, R. and Hermanson, L. and Ishii, M. and Kharin, V. and Kimoto, M. and Koenigk, T. and Kushnir, Y. and Matei, D. and Meehl, G. A. and Menegoz, M. and Merryfield, W. J. and Mochizuki, T. and Muller, W. A. and Pohlmann, H. and Power, S. and Rixen, M. and Sospedra-Alfonso, R. and Tuma, M. and Wyser, K. and Yang, X. and Yeager, S. (2018) Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (21). 11,895-11,903. ISSN 0094-8276

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Abstract

The Paris Agreement calls for efforts to limit anthropogenic global warming to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. However, natural internal variability may exacerbate anthropogenic warming to produce temporary excursions above 1.5 °C. Such excursions would not necessarily exceed the Paris Agreement, but would provide a warning that the threshold is being approached. Here we develop a new capability to predict the probability that global temperature will exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels in the coming 5 years. For the period 2017 to 2021 we predict a 38% and 10% chance, respectively, of monthly or yearly temperatures exceeding 1.5 °C, with virtually no chance of the 5-year mean being above the threshold. Our forecasts will be updated annually to provide policy makers with advanced warning of the evolving probability and duration of future warming events.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: ©2018. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 10 Nov 2021 02:14
Last Modified: 23 Nov 2021 23:17
Uncontrolled Keywords: global and regional planning; climate change; advanced warnings; anthropogenic global warming; anthropogenic warming; global temperatures; internal variability; policy makers; pre-industrial levels
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370201 Climate change processes
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960310 Global Effects of Climate Change and Variability (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) ""
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190502 Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079362
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/42406

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