Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate

Kushnir, Yochanan and Scaife, Adam A. and Arritt, Raymond and Balsamo, Gianpaolo and Boer, George and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco and Hawkins, Ed and Kimoto, Masahide and Kolli, Rupa Kumar and Kumar, Arun and Matei, Daniela and Matthes, Katja and Muller, Wolfgang A. and O’Kane, Terence and Perlwitz, Judith and Power, Scott and Raphael, Marilyn and Shimpo, Akihiko and Smith, Doug and Tuma, Matthias and Wu, Bo (2019) Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate. Nature Climate Change, 9 (2). pp. 94-101. ISSN 1758-678X


Near-term climate predictions — which operate on annual to decadal timescales — offer benefits for climate adaptation and resilience, and are thus important for society. Although skilful near-term predictions are now possible, particularly when coupled models are initialized from the current climate state (most importantly from the ocean), several scientific challenges remain, including gaps in understanding and modelling the underlying physical mechanisms. This Perspective discusses how these challenges can be overcome, outlining concrete steps towards the provision of operational near-term climate predictions. Progress in this endeavour will bridge the gap between current seasonal forecasts and century-scale climate change projections, allowing a seamless climate service delivery chain to be established.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to Published version in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 04 Nov 2021 02:02
Last Modified: 02 Dec 2021 00:37
Uncontrolled Keywords: adaptive management; climate change; climate modeling; climate prediction; ecosystem resilience
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370201 Climate change processes
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960304 Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts)
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190502 Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
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