Climate change projections for the Australian monsoon from CMIP6 Models

Narsey, S. Y. and Brown, J. R. and Colman, R. A. and Delage, F. and Power, S. B. and Moise, A. F. and Zhang, H. (2020) Climate change projections for the Australian monsoon from CMIP6 Models. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (13):e2019GL086816. pp. 1-9. ISSN 0094-8276


Climate change projections for the Australian monsoon have been highly uncertain in previous generations of coupled climate models. The new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble provides an opportunity to address the uncertainty in future projections for northern Australia. We find that the range in Australian monsoon projections from the available CMIP6 ensemble is substantially reduced compared to CMIP5, although models continue to disagree on the magnitude and direction of change. While previous CMIP5 studies identified warming in the western equatorial Pacific as important for Australian monsoon projections, here we show that the western Pacific is not strongly connected to northern Australian precipitation changes in the CMIP6 models. By comparing groups of models based on their future projections, we note that the model-to-model differences in Australian monsoon projections are congruent with the zonally averaged precipitation response in the Southern Hemisphere tropics within each model.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 24 Oct 2021 23:23
Last Modified: 10 Nov 2021 02:14
Uncontrolled Keywords: meteorology; atmospheric properties; applied mathematics; atmosphere; climate change; climate change projections; coupled climate model; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Equatorial Pacific; future projections; precipitation change; Southern Hemisphere; strongly connected; Australian monsoon; climate change; CMIP5; CMIP6; precipitation; rainfall
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370201 Climate change processes
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960307 Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts)
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190501 Climate change models
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