More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century

Maher, Nicola and Power, Scott B. and Marotzke, Jochem (2021) More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century. Nature Communications, 12 (1):788. ISSN 2041-1723

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Abstract

Separating how model-to-model differences in the forced response (U ) and internal variability (U ) contribute to the uncertainty in climate projections is important, but challenging. Reducing U increases confidence in projections, while U characterises the range of possible futures that might occur purely by chance. Separating these uncertainties is limited in traditional multi-model ensembles because most models have only a small number of realisations; furthermore, some models are not independent. Here, we use six largely independent single model initial-condition large ensembles to separate the contributions of U and U in projecting 21st-century changes of temperature, precipitation, and their temporal variability under strong forcing (RCP8.5). We provide a method that produces similar results using traditional multi-model archives. While U is larger than U for both temperature and precipitation changes, U is larger than U for the changes in temporal variability of both temperature and precipitation, between 20° and 80° latitude in both hemispheres. Over large regions and for all variables considered here except temporal temperature variability, models agree on the sign of the forced response whereas they disagree widely on the magnitude. Our separation method can readily be extended to other climate variables.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (1 Aug 2018 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (1 Aug 2018 -)
Date Deposited: 26 Aug 2021 06:03
Last Modified: 06 Sep 2021 06:30
Uncontrolled Keywords: projection and prediction; climate change; climate and earth system modelling
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370299 Climate change science not elsewhere classified
37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370201 Climate change processes
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960310 Global Effects of Climate Change and Variability (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) ""
D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960309 Effects of Climate Change and Variability on the South Pacific (excl. Australia and New Zealand) (excl. Social Impacts)
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190501 Climate change models
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20635-w
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/42385

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