Quantifying the potential effects of regional climate change on wheat leaf rust disease in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg

El Jarroudi, Moussa and Kouadio, Louis ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9669-7807 and Junk, Jurgen and Tychon, Bernard and Delfosse, Philippe (2016) Quantifying the potential effects of regional climate change on wheat leaf rust disease in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. In: 2016 APS Annual Meeting, 30 July- 3 Aug 2016, Tampa, Fl, U.S.A..


Climate change will affect wheat crop production both in the main processes of plant growth and development and in the occurrences and severities of plant diseases. We assessed the potential infection periods of wheat leaf rust WLR in a changing climate at two climatologically different sites in Luxembourg using a threshold-based model for WLR infection and progress that involves night-time hourly data of air temperature, relative humidity and rainfall. Field experiments were conducted during the 2003–2013 period at the selected sites to test the model. Projected climate data, from a multi model ensemble of regional climate models (spatial resolution 25 km) as well as an additional projection with a higher spatial resolution of 1.3 km, were used for investigating the potential WLR infection periods for two future time spans. Results showed that the infections of WLR were satisfactorily simulated at both sites during 2003–2013 period: probabilities of WLR detection were close to 1 and the critical success index ranged from 0.80 to 0.94. Regional climate projections indicated an increase in temperatures over the 2014-2050 and 2091-2100 periods compared to the reference period 1991–2000. Annual precipitation is also expected to increase slightly in the future. Further, trends in increased favourable days of WLR infection would likely occur at both sites due to projected climatic conditions more conducive than in the reference period. The methodology presented here can be readily transferred to other regions and other fungal diseases by adjusting the meteorological threshold values essential for a specific disease development.

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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Poster)
Refereed: No
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Poster presentation.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 15 Jun 2021 05:50
Last Modified: 19 Oct 2021 04:57
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate change; wheat leaf rust disease
Fields of Research (2008): 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0703 Crop and Pasture Production > 070308 Crop and Pasture Protection (Pests, Diseases and Weeds)
Fields of Research (2020): 30 AGRICULTURAL, VETERINARY AND FOOD SCIENCES > 3004 Crop and pasture production > 300409 Crop and pasture protection (incl. pests, diseases and weeds)
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-106-12-S4.1
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/42210

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