Evaluating management strategies for sustainable crop production under changing climate conditions: a system dynamics approach

Pham, Yen Hoang ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6548-3486 and Reardon-Smith, Kathryn and Deo, Ravinesh C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2290-6749 (2021) Evaluating management strategies for sustainable crop production under changing climate conditions: a system dynamics approach. Journal of Environmental Management, 292:112790. ISSN 0301-4797


Abstract

The increasing frequency and severity of drought pose significant threats to sustainable agricultural production across the world. Managing drought risks is challenging given the complexity of the interdependencies and feedback between climate drivers and socio-economic and ecological systems. To better understand the dynamics that drive the impacts of drought and water scarcity on crop production, a system dynamics model has been developed to explore complex interactions between factors in associated with drought and agricultural production, and examine how these might impact agricultural sustainability, using a case study in a coffee production system in Viet Nam. The model shows that water- and land-use drivers and their interactions with ecological and socio-economic factors play a more significant role than drought in determining the sustainability of coffee production. Results of policy scenario analyses indicate that drought conditions might exacerbate problems related to water shortages for irrigation but their impacts could be substantially minimized through applying intervention strategies, including restriction of the total area of land available for coffee production (to ~ 190,000 ha) and a 25% reduction in the irrigation amount per hectare of coffee compared to the common practices. Overall, the model findings add significant insight into drought and water resources management for sustainable crop production and the developed model can serve as a decision-support tool to inform strategic policy-making.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to Published version in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Sciences (6 Sep 2019 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (1 Aug 2018 -)
Date Deposited: 31 May 2021 01:57
Last Modified: 12 Oct 2021 23:57
Uncontrolled Keywords: agricultural production; water management; land use; drought; water scarcity; systems thinking
Fields of Research (2008): 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070108 Sustainable Agricultural Development
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070104 Agricultural Spatial Analysis and Modelling
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070103 Agricultural Production Systems Simulation
05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050205 Environmental Management
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070101 Agricultural Land Management
Fields of Research (2020): 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4104 Environmental management > 410406 Natural resource management
30 AGRICULTURAL, VETERINARY AND FOOD SCIENCES > 3002 Agriculture, land and farm management > 300207 Agricultural systems analysis and modelling
30 AGRICULTURAL, VETERINARY AND FOOD SCIENCES > 3002 Agriculture, land and farm management > 300205 Agricultural production systems simulation
41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4104 Environmental management > 410404 Environmental management
41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation > 410199 Climate change impacts and adaptation not elsewhere classified
30 AGRICULTURAL, VETERINARY AND FOOD SCIENCES > 3002 Agriculture, land and farm management > 300203 Agricultural land planning
30 AGRICULTURAL, VETERINARY AND FOOD SCIENCES > 3002 Agriculture, land and farm management > 300202 Agricultural land management
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 26 PLANT PRODUCTION AND PLANT PRIMARY PRODUCTS > 2601 Environmentally sustainable plant production > 260104 Management of water consumption by plant production
18 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT > 1803 Fresh, ground and surface water systems and management > 180399 Fresh, ground and surface water systems and management not elsewhere classified
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112790
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/42085

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