An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3

Slivinski, L. C. and Compo, G. P. and Sardeshmukh, P. D. and Whitaker, J. S. and McColl, C. and Allan, R. and Brohan, P. and Yin, X. and Smith, C. A. and Spencer, L. J. and Vose, R. S. and Rohrer, M. and Conroy, R. P. and Schuster, D. C. and Kennedy, J. J. and Ashcroft, L. and Bronnimann, S. and Brunet, M. and Camuffo, D. and Cornes, R. and Cram, T. and Dominguez-Castro, F. and Freeman, J. E. and Gergis, J. and Hawkins, E. and Jones, P. D. and Kubota, H. and Lee, T. C. and Lorrey, A. M. and Luterbacher, J. and Mock, C. J. and Przybylak, R. K. and Pudmenzky, C. and Slonosky, V. C. and Tinz, B. and Trewin, B. and Wang, X. L. and Wilkinson, C. and Wood, K. and Wyszynski, P. (2021) An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3. Journal of Climate, 34 (4). pp. 1417-1438. ISSN 0894-8755

[img]
Preview
Text (Published Version)
An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3.pdf
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

Download (5MB) | Preview

Abstract

The performance of a new historical reanalysis, the NOAA–CIRES–DOE Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3), is evaluated via comparisons with other reanalyses and independent observations. This dataset provides global, 3-hourly estimates of the atmosphere from 1806 to 2015 by assimilating only surface pressure observations and prescribing sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, and radiative forcings. Comparisons with independent observations, other reanalyses, and satellite products suggest that 20CRv3 can reliably produce atmospheric estimates on scales ranging from weather events to long-term climatic trends. Not only does 20CRv3 recreate a “best estimate” of the weather, including extreme events, it also provides an estimate of its confidence through the use of an ensemble. Surface pressure statistics suggest that these confidence estimates are reliable. Comparisons with independent upper-air observations in the Northern Hemisphere demonstrate that 20CRv3 has skill throughout the twentieth century. Upper-air fields from 20CRv3 in the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century correlate well with full-input reanalyses, and the correlation is predicted by the confidence fields from 20CRv3. The skill of analyzed 500-hPa geopotential heights from 20CRv3 for 1979–2015 is comparable to that of modern operational 3–4-day forecasts. Finally, 20CRv3 performs well on climate time scales. Long time series and multidecadal averages of mass, circulation, and precipitation fields agree well with modern reanalyses and station- and satellite-based products. 20CRv3 is also able to capture trends in tropospheric-layer temperatures that correlate well with independent products in the twentieth century, placing recent trends in a longer historical context.


Statistics for USQ ePrint 41080
Statistics for this ePrint Item
Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (1 Aug 2018 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (1 Aug 2018 -)
Date Deposited: 03 Feb 2021 00:45
Last Modified: 03 Feb 2021 00:45
Uncontrolled Keywords: Synoptic-scale processes; Surface pressure; Surface observations; Data assimilation; Reanalysis data; Decadal variability
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040107 Meteorology
01 Mathematical Sciences > 0102 Applied Mathematics > 010206 Operations Research
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl.Climate Change Processes)
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3701 Atmospheric sciences > 370105 Atmospheric dynamics
37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3701 Atmospheric sciences > 370108 Meteorology
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9602 Atmosphere and Weather > 960202 Atmospheric Processes and Dynamics
D Environment > 96 Environment > 9602 Atmosphere and Weather > 960299 Atmosphere and Weather not elsewhere classified
D Environment > 96 Environment > 9602 Atmosphere and Weather > 960203 Weather
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0505.1
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/41080

Actions (login required)

View Item Archive Repository Staff Only