LSTM integrated with Boruta-random forest optimiser for soil moisture estimation under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 global warming scenarios

Ahmed, A. A. Masrur and Deo, Ravinesh C. ORCID: and Ghahramani, Afshin ORCID: and Raj, Nawin and Feng, Qi and Yin, Zhenliang and Yang, Linshan (2021) LSTM integrated with Boruta-random forest optimiser for soil moisture estimation under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 global warming scenarios. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. pp. 1-31. ISSN 1436-3240


Future soil moisture (SM) estimation is a practically useful task for eco-hydrologists, agriculturists, and stakeholders in environment health monitoring to generate comprehensive understanding of hydro-physical and soil dynamic system. This paper demonstrates the capability of a hybridised long short-term memory (LSTM) predictive framework to emulate SM under global warming scenarios. The proposed model is developed by integrating Boruta-random forest (BRF) feature selection and capturing significant antecedent memory of SM behaviour were applied to estimate the future SM using Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase-5 (CMIP5) repository. The BRF is adapted to extract pertinent features in hydro-meteorological variables intrinsically related to SM, and therefore, is used to construct a hybridised deep learning (i.e., BRF-LSTM) model. To establish the viability of deep learning model for SM estimation until 2100, five stations closely matched to the global climate model grid are selected in Australia's Murray Darling Basin. The performance skill of BRF-LSTM model is compared against standalone models (i.e., LSTM, SVR, and MARS). The results showed that the hybrid deep learning model (i.e., BRF-LSTM) with a feature selection capability could significantly outperform the standalone models for both warming simulations. The proposed hybrid model also demonstrated superiority in SM estimation with over 95% of all predictive errors lying below 0.02 mm, and low relative root means square error (≈ 1.06% for RCP4.5 and ≈ 1.888% for RCP8.5) to outperform all the benchmark models. This study demonstrates the capability of LSTM algorithm coupled with BRF feature selection to simulate future soil moisture under climate change, and so, can be successfully implemented in hydrology, agriculture, soil use management and environmental management.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: This project was funded by USQ-CAS Scholarship under Chinese Academy of Science grant awarded to Professor Ravinesh (Project Leader).
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Sciences (6 Sep 2019 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems (1 Aug 2018 -)
Date Deposited: 28 Jan 2021 04:58
Last Modified: 28 Jan 2021 04:58
Uncontrolled Keywords: Soil moisture; Hybrid model; Boruta-random forest optimiser algorithm (BRF); Global climate model (GCM); Murray darling basin; Long short-term memory (LSTM)
Fields of Research (2008): 08 Information and Computing Sciences > 0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing > 080108 Neural, Evolutionary and Fuzzy Computation
05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050299 Environmental Science and Management not elsewhere classified
Fields of Research (2020): 46 INFORMATION AND COMPUTING SCIENCES > 4602 Artificial intelligence > 460207 Modelling and simulation
41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4106 Soil sciences > 410699 Soil sciences not elsewhere classified
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): E Expanding Knowledge > 97 Expanding Knowledge > 970105 Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences
Socio-Economic Objectives (2020): 18 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT > 1899 Other environmental management > 189999 Other environmental management not elsewhere classified
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