Disinformation cascades, espionage & counter-intelligence

Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela (2020) Disinformation cascades, espionage & counter-intelligence. The International Journal of Intelligence, Security, and Public Affairs. ISSN 2380-0992


Information cascades occur when decision-makers beyond some point in a decision-making sequence find that it is optimal to follow the decision that others have taken even if their own private information indicates a contrary course of action. Information cascades are studied because they can help us to explain decision-making conformity and behavior convergence, including fads and fashions. Cascades can be correct or incorrect, strong or fragile. The intelligence community has often been concerned with deception and disinformation. We call an incorrect information cascade precipitated by deception a ‘disinformation cascade.’ How easily can a disinformation cascade be started? How many intelligence officers must choose a certain way before a disinformation cascade starts? These are the questions we address in this paper.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Published online: 20 October 2020. Permanent restricted access to ArticleFirst version, in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Historic - Faculty of Business, Education, Law and Arts - School of Commerce (1 Jul 2013 - 17 Jan 2021)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Faculty of Business, Education, Law and Arts - School of Humanities and Communication (1 Mar 2019 -)
Date Deposited: 09 Nov 2020 02:53
Last Modified: 16 Nov 2020 00:35
Uncontrolled Keywords: disinformation, information cascades, intelligence agencies, decision theory
Fields of Research (2008): 17 Psychology and Cognitive Sciences > 1702 Cognitive Sciences > 170202 Decision Making
16 Studies in Human Society > 1606 Political Science > 160607 International Relations
16 Studies in Human Society > 1606 Political Science > 160604 Defence Studies
14 Economics > 1401 Economic Theory > 140104 Microeconomic Theory
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): A Defence > 81 Defence > 8101 Defence > 810107 National Security
A Defence > 81 Defence > 8101 Defence > 810105 Intelligence
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/23800992.2020.1834311
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/40057

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