Climate change effects on pasture-based dairy systems in south-eastern Australia

Pembleton, K. G. and Cullen, B. R. and Rawnsley, R. P. and Ramilan, T. (2020) Climate change effects on pasture-based dairy systems in south-eastern Australia. Crop and Pasture Science. ISSN 1836-0947

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Abstract

Increases in temperature, along with possible decreases in rainfall will influence the production of forage on Australian dairy farms. A biophysical simulation study was undertaken to compare the performance of perennial pastures and annual forage cropping systems under historical and two possible future climate scenarios for three key dairy locations of south-eastern Australia. Pastures and forage cropping systems were simulated with the biophysical models DairyMod and APSIM, respectively for a location with a heavy reliance on irrigation (Dookie, Victoria), a location with a partial reliance on irrigation (Elliott, Tasmania) and a dryland location (Terang, Victoria). The historical climate scenario (baseline scenario) had no augmentation to climate data and an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 380 ppm, while the two future climate scenarios had either a 1oC increase in temperatures (with an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 435 ppm) and a concurrent 10% decrease in rainfall (+1/-10 scenario) or a 2oC increase in temperatures (with an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 535 ppm) and a concurrent 20% decrease in rainfall and (+2/-20 scenario). Mean annual dry matter (DM) yields (t DM/ha) at Dookie of the forage cropping options and the pasture systems increased under both the future climate scenarios but more irrigation was required. At Terang, the forage cropping systems increased yield while the yield of the pasture systems decreased under the future climate senarious. At Elliott, irrigated pastures and cropping systems increase yield while there was minimal or a negative impact on dryland pastures and cropping systems yields under the futre climate senarious. At all three locations forage production in the colder months of the year increased with a decrease in production during the warmer months. This study indicates that double cropping and irrigated pasture systems at all three locations appear resilient to projected changes in climate, however, for irrigated systems this assumes a reliable supply of irrigation water. The systems implications of how a shift in the seasonality of forage supply within these options impacts on the farm system as a whole warrants further investigation.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Published online: 21 September 2020. Accepted version deposited in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Sciences (6 Sep 2019 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems (1 Aug 2018 -)
Date Deposited: 28 Oct 2020 01:32
Last Modified: 29 Oct 2020 01:51
Uncontrolled Keywords: biophysical modeling, climate adaptation, pasture based dairy systems
Fields of Research (2008): 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070103 Agricultural Production Systems Simulation
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070107 Farming Systems Research
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0703 Crop and Pasture Production > 070302 Agronomy
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): B Economic Development > 82 Plant Production and Plant Primary Products > 8204 Summer Grains and Oilseeds > 820404 Sorghum
B Economic Development > 83 Animal Production and Animal Primary Products > 8304 Pasture, Browse and Fodder Crops > 830405 Non-Cereal Crops for Silage/Green Feed
B Economic Development > 83 Animal Production and Animal Primary Products > 8304 Pasture, Browse and Fodder Crops > 830402 Lucerne
B Economic Development > 82 Plant Production and Plant Primary Products > 8204 Summer Grains and Oilseeds > 820401 Maize
B Economic Development > 83 Animal Production and Animal Primary Products > 8304 Pasture, Browse and Fodder Crops > 830406 Sown Pastures (excl. Lucerne)
B Economic Development > 82 Plant Production and Plant Primary Products > 8205 Winter Grains and Oilseeds > 820507 Wheat
B Economic Development > 82 Plant Production and Plant Primary Products > 8205 Winter Grains and Oilseeds > 820506 Oats
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1071/CP20108
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/40004

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