The climate-induced alteration of future geographic distribution of aflatoxin in peanut crops and its adaptation options

Haerani, Haerani and Apan, Armando ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5412-8881 and Basnet, Badri (2020) The climate-induced alteration of future geographic distribution of aflatoxin in peanut crops and its adaptation options. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 25 (6). pp. 1149-1175. ISSN 1381-2386

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Abstract

Because of its negative effect on health, aflatoxin has become one of the most important mycotoxins in the world. As climate stress is one of the main triggers of aflatoxin incidence, climate change could affect its geographic distribution. The primary aim of this study was to examine the effect of climate change on the future distribution of aflatoxin in peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) crops in Australia. The projected distributions in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 were modelled by employing the CLIMEX (CLIMatic indEX) model using two global climate models (GCMs), i.e. CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H based on SRES A2 and SRES A1B climate scenarios. This study has successfully developed CLIMEX model parameters for aflatoxin and confirmed the climatic zone preference of aflatoxin incidence, as concluded by other studies. Therefore, the model parameters are applicable in all parts of the world. The projection results in Australia confirm that climate change affects the future distribution of aflatoxin, including the distribution in the current peanut-growing areas. Shifts in aflatoxin invasion areas from the tropical and subtropical climate zones of the eastern part of Australia to the temperate climate zones of the south-eastern and south-western parts of the country were projected by 2100. Thus, adaptation and mitigation measures are needed to overcome the negative impacts in the future. Options for these measures include relocation of planting areas, development of host-plant resistance, proper agricultural practices, and mitigation actions by using physical, chemical, and biological approaches.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Civil Engineering and Surveying (1 Jul 2013 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems (1 Aug 2018 -)
Date Deposited: 06 Oct 2020 04:08
Last Modified: 26 Oct 2020 03:59
Uncontrolled Keywords: CLIMEX, Aflatoxin Climate change, Australia, Mitigation, Adaptation
Fields of Research (2008): 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070104 Agricultural Spatial Analysis and Modelling
05 Environmental Sciences > 0501 Ecological Applications > 050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960302 Climate Change Mitigation Strategies
B Economic Development > 82 Plant Production and Plant Primary Products > 8203 Industrial Crops > 820399 Industrial Crops not elsewhere classified
D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960301 Climate Change Adaptation Measures
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-020-09927-0
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/39827

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