Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors

Barcikowska, Monika J. and Kapnick, Sarah B. and Krishnamurty, Lakshmi and Russo, Simone and Cherchi, Annalisa and Folland, Chris K. (2020) Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors. Earth System Dynamics, 11 (1). pp. 161-181. ISSN 2190-4979

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Abstract

This study analyzes future climate for the Mediterranean region projected with the high-resolution coupled CM2.5 model, which incorporates a new and improved land model (LM3). The simulated climate changes suggest pronounced warming and drying over most of the region. However, the changes are distinctly smaller than those of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. In addition, the changes over much of southeast and central Europe indicate very modest warming compared to the CMIP5 projections and also a tendency toward wetter conditions. These differences indicate a possible role of factors such as land surface-atmospheric interactions in these regions. Our analysis also highlights the importance of correctly projecting the magnitude of changes in the summer North Atlantic Oscillation, which has the capacity to partly offset anthropogenic warming and drying over the western and central Mediterranean. Nevertheless, the projections suggest a decreasing influence of local atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections in maintaining the regional temperature and precipitation balance, in particular over arid regions like the eastern and southern Mediterranean, which show a local maximum of warming and drying. The intensification of the heat low in these regions rather suggests an increasing influence of warming land surface on the local surface atmospheric circulation and progressing desertification.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (1 Aug 2018 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (1 Aug 2018 -)
Date Deposited: 31 Mar 2020 02:34
Last Modified: 08 May 2020 02:58
Uncontrolled Keywords: atmospheric pressure; climate change; drying; surface measurement
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/38561

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