Integrative stochastic model standardization with genetic algorithm for rainfall pattern forecasting in tropical and semi-arid environments

Salih, Sinan Q. and Sharafati, Ahmad and Ebtehaj, Isa and Sanikhani, Hadi and Siddique, Ridwan and Deo, Ravinesh C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2290-6749 and Bonakdari, Hossein and Shahid, Shamsuddin and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher (2020) Integrative stochastic model standardization with genetic algorithm for rainfall pattern forecasting in tropical and semi-arid environments. Hydrological Sciences Journal. ISSN 0262-6667


Abstract

Climate patterns, including rainfall prediction, is one of the most complex problems for hydrologist. It is inherited by its natural and stochastic phenomena. In this study, a new approach for rainfall time series forecasting is introduced based on the integration of three stochastic modelling methods, including the seasonal differencing, seasonal standardization and spectral analysis, associated with the genetic algorithm (GA). This approach is specially tailored to eradicate the periodic pattern effects notable on the rainfall time series stationarity behaviour. Two different climates are selected to evaluate the proposed methodology, in tropical and semi-arid regions (Malaysia and Iraq). The results show that the predictive model registered an acceptable result for the forecasting of rainfall for both the investigated regions. The attained determination coefficient (R2) for the investigated stations was approx. 0.91, 0.90 and 0.089 for Mosul, Baghdad and Basrah (Iraq), and 0.80, 0.87 and 0.94 for Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Johor (Malaysia).


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Published online: 27 march 2020. Permanent restricted access to ArticleFirst version, in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Sciences (6 Sept 2019 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems (1 Aug 2018 -)
Date Deposited: 30 Mar 2020 06:21
Last Modified: 08 May 2020 02:56
Uncontrolled Keywords: genetic algorithm, stationarization, stochastic model, periodic term, rainfall forecasting
Fields of Research (2008): 08 Information and Computing Sciences > 0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing > 080108 Neural, Evolutionary and Fuzzy Computation
05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050206 Environmental Monitoring
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): E Expanding Knowledge > 97 Expanding Knowledge > 970105 Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2020.1734813
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/38555

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