Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part II: sensitivity of tropical cyclone formation to uniform and meridionally varying sea surface temperatures under aquaplanet conditions

Walsh, K. J. E. and Sur, Sharmila ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8102-2356 and Thatcher, M. and Wales, S. and Utembe, S. and Vaughan, A. (2020) Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part II: sensitivity of tropical cyclone formation to uniform and meridionally varying sea surface temperatures under aquaplanet conditions. Journal of Climate, 33 (4). pp. 1473-1486. ISSN 0894-8755

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Abstract

This study aims to investigate the response of simulated tropical cyclone formation to specific climate conditions, using an idealized aquaplanet framework of an ~40-km-horizontal-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. Two sets of idealized model experiments have been performed, one with a set of uniformly distributed constant global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and another in which varying meridional SST gradients are imposed. The results show that the strongest relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation is with vertical static stability: increased static stability is strongly associated with decreased tropical cyclone formation. Vertical wind shear and midtropospheric vertical velocity also appear to be related to tropical cyclone formation, although below a threshold value of wind shear there appears to be little relationship. The relationship of tropical cyclone formation with maximum potential intensity and mean sea surface temperature is weak and not monotonic. These simulations strongly suggest that vertical static stability should be part of any climate theory of tropical cyclone formation.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Published version deposited in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. © Copyright 2020 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be 'fair use' under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. All AMS journals and monograph publications are registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (http://www.copyright.com). Questions about permission to use materials for which AMS holds the copyright can also be directed to permissions@ametsoc.org. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement, available on the AMS website (http://www.ametsoc.org/CopyrightInformation).
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (1 Aug 2018 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (1 Aug 2018 -)
Date Deposited: 26 Feb 2020 04:57
Last Modified: 28 Aug 2020 05:01
Uncontrolled Keywords: tropical cyclones; climate models; climate variability
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040199 Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040102 Atmospheric Dynamics
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040107 Meteorology
04 Earth Sciences > 0405 Oceanography > 040599 Oceanography not elsewhere classified
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0079.1
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/37975

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