Land use change in Australian mixed crop-livestock systems as a transformative climate change adaptation

Ghahramani, Afshin and Kingwell, Ross S. and Maraseni, Tek Narayan (2020) Land use change in Australian mixed crop-livestock systems as a transformative climate change adaptation. Agricultural Systems, 180. ISSN 0308-521X

Abstract

Mixed crop-livestock farming systems provide food for over half of the global population. However, some important food exporting countries, like Australia, are predicted to be vulnerable to climate change and may require transformative adaptations if they are to continue their role in food exportation. This paper assesses the potential impacts of projected climate change by 2030 (0.4–1.6° increase in mean temperature) on Australian mixed crop-livestock systems and examines the consequences of shifts in land allocations to cropping and grazing, in these systems, as an adaptation option. Farm bio-economic simulation models were developed for these mixed enterprise systems in several regions of Australia. These models were based on biophysically coupled crop, pasture, and livestock simulation models that in turn drew on site-based downscaled climate projection datasets. The farm models calculated farm profitability and risk measures. A range of land use changes was investigated. At drier locations facing adverse climate change, results showed a transition towards a greater emphasis on livestock production could be beneficial when assessed against multiple criteria of farm profit, downside financial risk, and environmental damage. We highlight some industry and government actions and policies that could facilitate these preferred adaptation strategies at such locations.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to Published version, in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems (1 Aug 2018 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems (1 Aug 2018 -)
Date Deposited: 29 Jan 2020 04:32
Last Modified: 08 May 2020 02:34
Uncontrolled Keywords: mixed farm systems; bio-economic; modelling; adaptation; climate change; GHG
Fields of Research : 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070102 Agricultural Land Planning
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070105 Agricultural Systems Analysis and Modelling
05 Environmental Sciences > 0501 Ecological Applications > 050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
Socio-Economic Objective: D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960301 Climate Change Adaptation Measures
D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960307 Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts)
D Environment > 96 Environment > 9609 Land and Water Management > 960999 Land and Water Management of Environments not elsewhere classified
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102791
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/37841

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