Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part I: high-resolution climate model verification

Sur, Sharmila ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8102-2356 and Walsh, K. J. E. and Thatcher, M. and Wales, S. and Utembe, S. (2020) Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part I: high-resolution climate model verification. Journal of Climate, 33 (4). pp. 1455-1472. ISSN 0894-8755

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Abstract

Recent global climate models with sufficient resolution and physics offer a promising approach for simulating
real-world tropical cyclone (TC) statistics and their changing relationship with climate. In the first part
of this study, we examine the performance of a high-resolution (;40-km horizontal grid) global climate
model, the atmospheric component of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator
(ACCESS) based on the Met Office Unified Model (UM8.5) Global Atmosphere (GA6.0). The atmospheric
model is forced with observed sea surface temperature, and 20 years of integrations (1990–2009) are analyzed
for evaluating the simulated TC statistics compared with observations. The model reproduces the observed
climatology, geographical distribution, and interhemispheric asymmetry of global TC formation rates reasonably
well. The annual cycle of regional TC formation rates over most basins is also well captured.
However, there are some regional biases in the geographical distribution of TC formation rates. To identify
the sources of these biases, a suite of model-simulated large-scale climate conditions that critically modulate
TC formation rates are further evaluated, including the assessment of a multivariate genesis potential index.
Results indicate that the model TC genesis biases correspond well to the inherent biases in the simulated
large-scale climatic states, although the relative effects on TC genesis of some variables differs between
basins. This highlights the model’s mean-state dependency in simulating accurate TC formation rates.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Published version embargoed until 1 Sept 2020 (12 months), in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. © Copyright 2020 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be 'fair use' under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. All AMS journals and monograph publications are registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (http://www.copyright.com). Questions about permission to use materials for which AMS holds the copyright can also be directed to permissions@ametsoc.org. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement, available on the AMS website (http://www.ametsoc.org/CopyrightInformation).
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (1 Aug 2018 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (1 Aug 2018 -)
Date Deposited: 26 Feb 2020 05:11
Last Modified: 01 Sep 2020 22:05
Uncontrolled Keywords: tropical cyclones; climate variability; climate models
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040199 Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040107 Meteorology
04 Earth Sciences > 0405 Oceanography > 040599 Oceanography not elsewhere classified
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): E Expanding Knowledge > 97 Expanding Knowledge > 970104 Expanding Knowledge in the Earth Sciences
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0078.1
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/37811

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