An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections

Shi, G. and Ribbe, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6749-1228 and Cai, W. and Cowan, T. (2008) An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (2). L2072. ISSN 0094-8276

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Abstract

The majority of climate models project a winter rainfall
reduction over south-eastern Australia (SEA), while some
show a tendency for a summer rainfall increase. The
dynamics for these rainfall changes are not clear. Using
outputs from a climate model, we show that a summer
rainfall increase is consistent with a large Tasman Sea
warming promoting convection, and an upward trend of the
Southern Annular Mode (SAM) promoting onshore flows;
these processes dominate over a rainfall decrease from an
El Nino-like warming pattern. In winter, similar effects from a Tasman Sea warming and an upward SAM trend operate
along Australia’s east coast, however, the rain-reducing
impact of an Indian Ocean Dipole-like warming pattern
dominates. In both seasons, the upward SAM trend causes
a rainfall reduction over southern Australia. Summer
rainfall over north-western Australia is projected to
decrease, due to an unrealistic relationship with the El Nino- Southern Oscillation. Possible uncertainties are discussed.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Author version deposited in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Historic - Faculty of Sciences - Department of Biological and Physical Sciences (Up to 30 Jun 2013)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Historic - Faculty of Sciences - Department of Biological and Physical Sciences (Up to 30 Jun 2013)
Date Deposited: 22 Jan 2008 02:47
Last Modified: 02 Jul 2013 22:57
Uncontrolled Keywords: rainfall; Australia; El Nino Southern Oscillation; ENSO; Southern Annular Mode; Indian Ocean Dipole; climate change; Tasman Sea
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
04 Earth Sciences > 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience > 040605 Palaeoclimatology
08 Information and Computing Sciences > 0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing > 080110 Simulation and Modelling
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370201 Climate change processes
37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3709 Physical geography and environmental geoscience > 370904 Palaeoclimatology
46 INFORMATION AND COMPUTING SCIENCES > 4602 Artificial intelligence > 460207 Modelling and simulation
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960307 Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts)
Identification Number or DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032436
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/3760

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