An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections

Shi, G. and Ribbe, J. and Cai, W. and Cowan, T. (2008) An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (2). L2072. ISSN 0094-8276

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The majority of climate models project a winter rainfall
reduction over south-eastern Australia (SEA), while some
show a tendency for a summer rainfall increase. The
dynamics for these rainfall changes are not clear. Using
outputs from a climate model, we show that a summer
rainfall increase is consistent with a large Tasman Sea
warming promoting convection, and an upward trend of the
Southern Annular Mode (SAM) promoting onshore flows;
these processes dominate over a rainfall decrease from an
El Nino-like warming pattern. In winter, similar effects from a Tasman Sea warming and an upward SAM trend operate
along Australia’s east coast, however, the rain-reducing
impact of an Indian Ocean Dipole-like warming pattern
dominates. In both seasons, the upward SAM trend causes
a rainfall reduction over southern Australia. Summer
rainfall over north-western Australia is projected to
decrease, due to an unrealistic relationship with the El Nino- Southern Oscillation. Possible uncertainties are discussed.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Author version deposited in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Historic - Faculty of Sciences - Department of Biological and Physical Sciences (Up to 30 Jun 2013)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Historic - Faculty of Sciences - Department of Biological and Physical Sciences (Up to 30 Jun 2013)
Date Deposited: 22 Jan 2008 02:47
Last Modified: 02 Jul 2013 22:57
Uncontrolled Keywords: rainfall; Australia; El Nino Southern Oscillation; ENSO; Southern Annular Mode; Indian Ocean Dipole; climate change; Tasman Sea
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
04 Earth Sciences > 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience > 040605 Palaeoclimatology
08 Information and Computing Sciences > 0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing > 080110 Simulation and Modelling
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370201 Climate change processes
37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3709 Physical geography and environmental geoscience > 370904 Palaeoclimatology
46 INFORMATION AND COMPUTING SCIENCES > 4602 Artificial intelligence > 460207 Modelling and simulation
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960307 Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts)
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