Energy sector development: system dynamics analysis

Laimon, Mohamd and Mai, Thanh and Goh, Steven and Yusaf, Talal (2019) Energy sector development: system dynamics analysis. Applied Sciences, 10 (1):134. pp. 1-19.

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The development of a complex and dynamic system such as the energy sector requires a comprehensiveunderstanding ofits constituentcomponents andtheir interactions, and thusrequires approaches that can adapt to the dynamic complexity in systems. Previous efforts mainly used reductionist approaches, which examine the components of the system in isolation, neglecting their interdependent nature. Such approaches reduce our ability to understand the system and/or mitigate undesirable outcomes. We adopt a system dynamics approach to construct an integrated model for analysing the behaviour of the energy sector. Although the Australian energy sector is used as a case study, the model can be applied in other context elsewhere around the world The results indicate that the current trajectory of the Australian energy sector is unsustainable and growth is not being controlled. Limits to growth are fast approaching due to excessive fossil fuel extraction, high emissions and high energy dependency. With the current growth, Australia’s global CO2 emissions footprint will increase to unprecedented levels reaching 12% by 2030 (9.5% for exports and 2.5% for domestic). Oil dependency will account for 43% and 47% of total consumption by 2030 and 2050. By 2032, coal will be the only fossil fuel resource available in Australia. Expansion of investment in coal and gas production is a large risk.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (1 Aug 2018 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering (1 Jul 2013 -)
Date Deposited: 30 Jan 2020 01:20
Last Modified: 25 May 2021 04:18
Uncontrolled Keywords: complexity; dynamic modelling; energy modelling; energy policy; energy security; energy dependency; CO2 emissions
Fields of Research (2008): 16 Studies in Human Society > 1605 Policy and Administration > 160505 Economic Development Policy
Fields of Research (2020): 44 HUMAN SOCIETY > 4407 Policy and administration > 440703 Economic development policy
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