Development of copula statistical drought prediction model using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index

Dayal, Kavina S. and Deo, Ravinesh C. and Apan, Armando A. (2020) Development of copula statistical drought prediction model using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index. In: Handbook of probabilistic models. Elsevier (Butterworth-Heinemann), Oxford, United Kingdom, pp. 141-178. ISBN 978-0-12-816514-0

Abstract

Modeling of drought properties is paramount for real-life decision-making in hydrologic engineering, agriculture, water management, and drought-risk relief. This study models joint behavior of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index and drought properties (severity, S; duration, D; intensity, I), conditional upon pertinent climate mode indices. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation indicators were selected for conditional prediction of drought events, and the D-S-I properties were used to investigate the drought-risk. Vine copula algorithm was used to establish bivariate and trivariate joint distributions of drought behavior for conditional probability–based simulations, where the predictions were made for accurately modeling the drought. Results yielded considerably small differences between the observed and predicted drought properties, elucidating the effectiveness of copula-statistical models in future drought-risk modeling. The findings have implications for drought and aridity management in other agricultural regions where complex relationships between climate anomalies and drought properties are likely to exacerbate the net risk of a future drought event.


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Item Type: Book Chapter (Commonwealth Reporting Category B)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to Published chapter, in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Sciences (6 Sept 2019 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Sciences (6 Sept 2019 -)
Date Deposited: 22 Oct 2019 23:33
Last Modified: 23 Oct 2019 01:46
Uncontrolled Keywords: Bivariate and trivariate model; Copula-statistical model; drought properties; drought-risk; probabilistic forecasting; vine copulas
Fields of Research : 05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050299 Environmental Science and Management not elsewhere classified
Socio-Economic Objective: E Expanding Knowledge > 97 Expanding Knowledge > 970105 Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/37211

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