Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system

Slivinski, Laura C. and Compo, Gilbert P. and Whitaker, Jeffrey S. and Sardeshmukh, Prashant D. and Giese, Benjamin S. and McColl, Chesley and Allan, Rob and Yin, Xungang and Vose, Russell and Titchner, Holly and Kennedy, John and Spencer, Lawrence J. and Ashcroft, Linden and Bronnimann, Stefan and Brunet, Manola and Camuffo, Dario and Cornes, Richard and Cram, Thomas A. and Crouthamel, Richard and Dominguez‐Castro, Fernando and Freeman, J. Eric and Gergis, Joelle and Hawkins, Ed and Jones, Philip D. and Jourdain, Sylvie and Kaplan, Alexey and Kubota, Hisayuki and Le Blancq, Frank and Lee, Tsz‐Cheung and Lorrey, Andrew and Luterbacher, Jurg and Maugeri, Maurizio and Mock, Cary J. and Moore, G. W. Kent and Przybylak, Rajmund and Pudmenzky, Christa and Reason, Chris and Slonosky, Victoria C. and Smith, Catherine A. and Tinz, Birger and Trewin, Blair and Valente, Maria Antonia and Wang, Xiaolan L. and Wilkinson, Clive and Wood, Kevin and Wyszynski, Przemysław (2019) Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 0035-9009

Abstract

Historical reanalyses that span more than a century are needed for a wide range of studies, from understanding large‐scale climate trends to diagnosing the impacts of individual historical extreme weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) Project is an effort to fill this need. It is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and is facilitated by collaboration with the international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth initiative. 20CR is the first ensemble of sub‐daily global atmospheric conditions spanning over 100 years. This provides a best estimate of the weather at any given place and time as well as an estimate of its confidence and uncertainty. While extremely useful, version 2c of this dataset (20CRv2c) has several significant issues, including inaccurate estimates of confidence and a global sea level pressure bias in the mid‐19th century. These and other issues can reduce its effectiveness for studies at many spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, the 20CR system underwent a series of developments to generate a significant new version of the reanalysis. The version 3 system (NOAA‐CIRES‐DOE 20CRv3) uses upgraded data assimilation methods including an adaptive inflation algorithm; has a newer, higher‐resolution forecast model that specifies dry air mass; and assimilates a larger set of pressure observations. These changes have improved the ensemble‐based estimates of confidence, removed spin‐up effects in the precipitation fields, and diminished the sea‐level pressure bias. Other improvements include more accurate representations of storm intensity, smaller errors, and large‐scale reductions in model bias. The 20CRv3 system is comprehensively reviewed, focusing on the aspects that have ameliorated issues in 20CRv2c. Despite the many improvements, some challenges remain, including a systematic bias in tropical precipitation and time‐varying biases in southern high‐latitude pressure fields.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Published online: 3 July 2019. Permanent restricted access to ArticleFirst version, in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (1 Aug 2018 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (1 Aug 2018 -)
Date Deposited: 07 Nov 2019 01:44
Last Modified: 21 Nov 2019 05:55
Uncontrolled Keywords: data assimilation, reanalysis, surface pressure, 20CRv3
Fields of Research : 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040199 Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040107 Meteorology
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040102 Atmospheric Dynamics
Identification Number or DOI: doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/36953

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