Deep solar radiation forecasting with convolutional neural network and long short-term memory network algorithms

Ghimire, Sujan and Deo, Ravinesh C. and Raj, Nawin and Mi, Jianchun (2019) Deep solar radiation forecasting with convolutional neural network and long short-term memory network algorithms. Applied Energy, 253 (Article 113541). -113541. ISSN 0306-2619

Abstract

This paper designs a hybridized deep learning framework that integrates the Convolutional Neural Network for pattern recognition with the Long Short-Term Memory Network for half-hourly global solar radiation (GSR) forecasting. The Convolution network is applied to robustly extract data input features from predictive variables (i.e., statistically significant antecedent inputs) while Long Short-Term Memory absorbs them for prediction. Half-hourly GSR for Alice Springs (Australia: 01 January 2006 to 31 August 2018) are extracted with stationarity checks applied via unit-root and mutual information test to capture antecedent GSR values required to forecast future GSR. The proposed hybrid model is benchmarked with standalone models as well as other Deep Learning, Single Hidden Layer and Tree based models. The results show that the benchmarked models are not able to generate satisfactory GSR predictions and the proposed hybrid model outperforms all other counterparts. The hybrid model registers superior results with over 70% of predictive errors lying below ±10 Wm−2 and outperforms the benchmark model for 1-Day half-hourly GSR prediction with low Relative Root Mean Square Error (≈1.515%), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (≈4.672%) and Absolute Percentage Bias (≈1.233%). This study ascertains that a proposed hybrid model based on a convolution network framework can accurately predict GSR and enable energy availability to be regularly monitored over multi-step horizons when coupled with a low latency Long Short-Term Memory network. Furthermore, it also concludes that the proposed model can have practical implications in forecasting GSR, capitalizing its versatility as a stratagem in monitoring solar powered systems by integrating freely available solar radiation into a real power grid system.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to Published version, in a accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Agricultural, Computational and Environmental Sciences
Date Deposited: 29 Jul 2019 03:07
Last Modified: 07 Aug 2019 04:34
Uncontrolled Keywords: energy security; solar energy monitoring system; short-term solar radiation prediction; convolutional neural network; long short term memory network; decision support system
Fields of Research : 08 Information and Computing Sciences > 0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing > 080108 Neural, Evolutionary and Fuzzy Computation
05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050299 Environmental Science and Management not elsewhere classified
Socio-Economic Objective: E Expanding Knowledge > 97 Expanding Knowledge > 970101 Expanding Knowledge in the Mathematical Sciences
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113541
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/36835

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