Long-term modelling of wind speeds using six different heuristic artificial intelligence approaches

Maroufpoor, Saman and Sanikhani, Hadi and Kisi, Ozgur and Deo, Ravinesh C. and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher (2019) Long-term modelling of wind speeds using six different heuristic artificial intelligence approaches. International Journal of Climatology. ISSN 0899-8418

Abstract

Wind speed is an essential component that needs to be determined accurately, especially over long‐term periods for various engineering and scientific purposes including renewable energy productions, structural building sustainability and others. In this study, six different heuristic methods: multi‐layer perceptron artificial neural networks, (ANN), adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with grid partition (GP), ANFIS with subtractive clustering (SC), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), gene expression programming (GEP) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) are developed to model monthly wind speeds using meteorological input information. The atmospheric pressure, temperature, relative humidity and rainfall values are obtained from Jolfa and Tabriz meteorological stations, Iran, and are used to build the proposed predictive models.. Different statistical indicators are computed to evaluate and comprehensively assess the performance of the six heuristic methods. Over the testing phase, the ANFIS‐GP and GRNN models are seen to exhibit the highest predictive performance for the Jolfa and Tabriz stations, respectively. That is, the maximum coefficient of determination are found to be 0.874, 0.858, 0.850, 0.849, 0.847 and 0.826, for the GRNN, ANFIS‐GP, ANFIS‐SC, ANN, GEP and MARS models, respectively, for Jolfa station, respectively, revealing the superiority of GRNN over the five counterpart models. The results show the generalization capability of the tested heuristic artificial intelligence techniques for both study stations, and therefore could be explored for windspeed prediction and various decisions made in regards to climate change studies.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Published online: 12 February 2019. Permanent restricted access to ArticleFirst version, in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Agricultural, Computational and Environmental Sciences
Date Deposited: 09 May 2019 02:20
Last Modified: 30 May 2019 05:12
Uncontrolled Keywords: gene expression programming, multivariate adaptive regression spline, neural networks, neuro-fuzzy, prediction, wind speed
Fields of Research : 08 Information and Computing Sciences > 0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing > 080105 Expert Systems
01 Mathematical Sciences > 0103 Numerical and Computational Mathematics > 010399 Numerical and Computational Mathematics not elsewhere classified
05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050205 Environmental Management
Socio-Economic Objective: E Expanding Knowledge > 97 Expanding Knowledge > 970105 Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1002/joc.6037
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/36351

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