Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency

Jones, Anthony C. and Haywood, James M. and Dunstone, Nick and Emanuel, Kerry and Hawcroft, Matthew K. and Hodges, Kevin I. and Jones, Andy (2017) Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency. Nature Communications, 8 (1):1382. pp. 1-10.

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Solar geoengineering refers to a range of proposed methods for counteracting global warming by artificially reducing sunlight at Earth's surface. The most widely known solar geoengineering proposal is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which has impacts analogous to those from volcanic eruptions. Observations following major volcanic eruptions indicate that aerosol enhancements confined to a single hemisphere effectively modulate North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the following years. Here we investigate the effects of both single-hemisphere and global SAI scenarios on North Atlantic TC activity using the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and various TC identification methods. We show that a robust result from all of the methods is that SAI applied to the southern hemisphere would enhance TC frequency relative to a global SAI application, and vice versa for SAI in the northern hemisphere. Our results reemphasise concerns regarding regional geoengineering and should motivate policymakers to regulate large-scale unilateral geoengineering deployments. © 2017 The Author(s).

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 16 Oct 2019 06:31
Last Modified: 24 May 2021 03:39
Uncontrolled Keywords: aerosol; engineering geology; frequency analysis; general circulation model; global warming; Northern Hemisphere; solar radiation; Southern Hemisphere; stratosphere; tropical cyclone; volcanic eruption; injection; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North)
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040107 Meteorology
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl.Climate Change Processes)
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3701 Atmospheric sciences > 370108 Meteorology
37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370202 Climatology
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