Preliminary assessment of the impact of climate change on design rainfall IFD curves

Bates, Bryson C. and Argueso, Daniel and Evans, Jason and Green, Janice and Griesser, Aurel and Jakob, Dorte and Seed, Alan and Lau, Rex and Lehmann, Eric and Phatak, Aloke and Abbs, Deborah and Lavender, Sally and Nguyen, Kim and Rafter, Tony and Thatcher, Marcus and Zheng, Feifei and Westra, Seth and Leonard, Michael (2015) Preliminary assessment of the impact of climate change on design rainfall IFD curves. In: 36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: The Art and Science of Water (HWRS 2015), 7-10 Dec 2015, Hobart, Australia.


The new edition of Australian Rainfall and Runoff (hereafter designated ARR 2015) contains completely revised design rainfall Intensity-Frequency-Duration (IFD) curves prepared by the Bureau of Meteorology. These curves are estimated from current climate observations. The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that 'extreme precipitation events over most of the mid-latitude land masses and over wet tropical regions will very likely become more intense and more frequent by the end of this century, as global mean surface temperature increases.' This suggests that the current-climate IFD curves may become unsuitable for infrastructure design in future decades. While ARR 2015 includes an interim guideline on incorporating climate change into design flood estimation, the guidance is based on a 'broad brush' approach due to the paucity of published regionally specific results. As a first step towards bridging this gap, a pilot project titled 'Rainfall Intensity-Frequency-Duration (IFD) Relationships under Climate Change' was commissioned in June 2013 and administered by Engineers Australia. Its principal aim was to provide insight into how the new design rainfall IFD curves might be affected by anthropogenic climate change. This paper describes the background for and components of the investigation, the challenges involved, the major research findings and recommendations for further action. © 2015, Engineers Australia. All rights reserved.

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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Paper)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Copyright© (2015) by Engineers Australia. All rights reserved.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 16 May 2019 23:45
Last Modified: 22 Aug 2019 06:40
Uncontrolled Keywords: air navigation; atmospheric temperature; design; hydrology; precipitation (meteorology); rain; water resources
Fields of Research (2008): 05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050204 Environmental Impact Assessment
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040107 Meteorology
05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050206 Environmental Monitoring

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