Application of generalized intervention analysis model

Hu, Xiaohua and Zhang, Zhongwei (2019) Application of generalized intervention analysis model. Scholars Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 6 (1). pp. 17-23. ISSN 2348-8875

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Abstract

In this paper, the intervention analysis model has been generalized in the sense that its intervention function either being a jumping function used to describe the continuing intervention or a unit impulse function used to describe the transient intervention has been replaced with a unified function, which represents an intervention process, denotes the amplitude (or strength) of the impact of intervention events at intervention time, denotes the decay factor of continuing process. Applying the generalized model to predict the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Hainan province from 1989 to 2016, as a Government intervention was introduced in 2010, results in a 60% of improvement in terms of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), when compared with the original model.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Published version made available in accordance with a Creative Commons Attribution license 4.0.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Agricultural, Computational and Environmental Sciences
Date Deposited: 29 May 2019 05:18
Last Modified: 25 Jun 2019 01:09
Uncontrolled Keywords: intervention event, jump function, unit impulsive function, generalized intervention analysis model, Hainan GDP
Fields of Research : 01 Mathematical Sciences > 0104 Statistics > 010401 Applied Statistics
14 Economics > 1403 Econometrics > 140303 Economic Models and Forecasting
Identification Number or DOI: doi:10.21276/sjebm.2019.6.1.4
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/35767

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