Upscaling models, downscaling data or the right model for the right scale of application?

Sparks, Adam H. and Garrett, Karen A. and Gilligan, Christopher A. and Nelson, Andrew and Pembleton, Keith (2018) Upscaling models, downscaling data or the right model for the right scale of application? In: 11th International Congress of Plant Pathology (ICPP 2018): Plant Health in a Global Economy, 29 July - 3 August 2018, Boston, MA, United States.

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Abstract

Plant epidemiological models are used in a range of applications, from detailed simulation models that closely follow pathogen infection and dispersal, to generic template-based models for rapid assessment of invasive species. There is increasing interest in applying small scale models - e.g., based on tissue, organ or whole plants - using remotely collected daily data, to generate regional risk information (e.g., maps). The assumption made is that such small scale models “scale-up” appropriately to regional, continental or even global scale. However, these models are often constructed using locally collected, hourly data. By necessity data available are often at much coarser scale, both temporally and spatially, than the data used to develop the model. Computational requirements increase considerably when more detailed models that require fine resolution data (if available) are applied to large areas, while small scale models often add little useful information at these scales and may lead to error propagation. Ideally, detailed models should be used at small temporal and spatial scales and less detailed models used for larger temporal and spatial scales. This paper presents examples of different approaches for changing scales - including upscaling models, downscaling data, and developing new models - and the issues that these approaches create or solve, along with ideas about how we can ensure that the scale of model and data match the desired application.


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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Keynote)
Refereed: No
Item Status: Live Archive
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Crop Health (24 Mar 2014 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment - Centre for Crop Health (24 Mar 2014 -)
Date Deposited: 30 Jul 2019 03:24
Last Modified: 30 Jul 2019 03:24
Uncontrolled Keywords: plant epidemiological models
Fields of Research : 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070104 Agricultural Spatial Analysis and Modelling
06 Biological Sciences > 0607 Plant Biology > 060704 Plant Pathology
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0703 Crop and Pasture Production > 070308 Crop and Pasture Protection (Pests, Diseases and Weeds)
Socio-Economic Objective: D Environment > 96 Environment > 9604 Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species > 960403 Control of Animal Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species in Farmland, Arable Cropland and Permanent Cropland Environments
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/35391

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