Weekly heat wave death prediction model using zero-inflated regression approach

Kim, Do-Woo and Deo, Ravinesh C. and Park, Sang-Jin and Lee, Jong-Seol and Lee, Woo-Seop (2018) Weekly heat wave death prediction model using zero-inflated regression approach. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. ISSN 0177-798X


Driven partly by the shifting climate and growth of vulnerable populations, excess heat-triggered human fatalities are becoming aserious public health risk concern in Korea. This study develops the zero-inflated regression model for predicting the numbers of weekly heat deaths in South Korea. Defining the heat death as the death caused by 'exposure to excessive natural heat', data
analyses are performed to examine statistical relationships between the number of heat deaths versus the pertinent temperature-related parameters and the size of the vulnerable population. The weekly mean of daily maximum temperature and the number ofconsecutive heat wave days with tropical nights are selected as the temperature-related parameters, while the numbers of elderlyliving alone and those of agricultural workers are selected as the parameters representing the vulnerable population. Using thesefour regressive parameters, we develop a regression-based model applied for the prediction of the number of heat deaths. Severalstatistical methods including the Poisson, negative binomial, hurdle, and the zero-inflated models are scrutinized. The resultsdemonstrate that the zero-inflated Poisson regression model is the most appropriate statistical approach, as it addresses the issueof frequent occurrences of zero-valued observations in weekly heat death data. It was evident that a larger number of heat deathsoccurred in the period and study region with a correspondingly higher predicted value. In accordance with this statisticalperformance, we ascertain that the utilized models could be explored by disaster management and public health experts as ascientific contrivance for health risk mitigation and resource allocation more strategically, and for providing the general publicwith reliable weekly heat wave risk forecasts.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Published online: 25 September 2018. Permanent restricted access to ArticleFirst version, in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty / Department / School: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Agricultural, Computational and Environmental Sciences
Date Deposited: 27 Sep 2018 00:23
Last Modified: 02 Oct 2018 02:52
Uncontrolled Keywords: heat related deaths; Korea
Fields of Research : 11 Medical and Health Sciences > 1117 Public Health and Health Services > 111705 Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety
11 Medical and Health Sciences > 1117 Public Health and Health Services > 111706 Epidemiology
05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050205 Environmental Management
Socio-Economic Objective: E Expanding Knowledge > 97 Expanding Knowledge > 970105 Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences
E Expanding Knowledge > 97 Expanding Knowledge > 970111 Expanding Knowledge in the Medical and Health Sciences
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1007/s00704-018-2636-9
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/34871

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