Should we leave now? Behavioral factors in evacuation under wildfire threat

McLennan, Jim and Ryan, Barbara and Bearman, Chris and Toh, Keith (2018) Should we leave now? Behavioral factors in evacuation under wildfire threat. Fire Technology. ISSN 0015-2684


Wildfires pose a serious threat to life in many countries. For police, fire and emergency services authorities in most jurisdictions in North America and Australia evacuation is now the option that is preferred overwhelmingly. Wildfire evacuation modeling can assist authorities in planning evacuation responses to future threats. Understanding residents' behavior under wildfire threat may assist in wildfire evacuation modeling. This paper reviews North American and Australian research into wildfire evacuation behavior published between January 2005 and June 2017. Wildfire evacuation policies differ across the two regions: in North America mandatory evacuations are favored, in Australia most are advisory. Research from both regions indicates that following a wildfire evacuation warning some threatened residents will wish to remain on their property in order to protect it, many will delay evacuating, and some residents who are not on their property when an evacuation warning is issued may seek to return. Mandatory evacuation is likely to result in greater compliance, enforcement policies are also likely to be influential. Self-delayed evacuation is likely if warnings are not sufficiently informative: residents are likely to engage in information search rather than initiating evacuation actions. The wildfire warning and threat histories of a location may influence residents' decisions and actions. The complexities of behavioral factors influencing residents' actions following an evacuation warning pose challenges for wildfire evacuation modeling. Suggestions are offered for ways in which authorities might reduce the numbers of residents who delay evacuating following a wildfire warning.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Published online: 17 July 2018. Permanent restricted access to ArticleFirst version, in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty / Department / School: Current - Faculty of Business, Education, Law and Arts - School of Arts and Communication
Date Deposited: 17 Jan 2019 01:30
Last Modified: 22 Feb 2019 00:13
Uncontrolled Keywords: wildfire, bushfire, evacuation, delay, behaviour, modeling, Australia, Canada, United States
Fields of Research : 20 Language, Communication and Culture > 2001 Communication and Media Studies > 200199 Communication and Media Studies not elsewhere classified
Socio-Economic Objective: D Environment > 96 Environment > 9610 Natural Hazards > 961099 Natural Hazards not elsewhere classified
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1007/s10694-018-0753-8

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