Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of six invasive alien plants in Nepal

Shrestha, Uttam Babu and Sharma, Krishna Prasad and Devkota, Anjana and Siwakoti, Mohan and Shrestha, Bharat Babu (2018) Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of six invasive alien plants in Nepal. Ecological Indicators, 95 (1). pp. 99-107. ISSN 1470-160X

Abstract

The biological invasions have been increasing at multiple spatial scales and the management of invasive alien species is becoming more challenging due to confounding effects of climate change on the distribution of those species. Identification of climatically suitable areas for invasive alien species and their range under future climate change scenarios are essential for long-term management planning of these species. Using occurrence data of six of the most problematic invasive alien plants (IAPs) of Nepal (Ageratum houstonianum Mill., Chromolaena odorata (L.) R.M. King & H. Rob., Hyptis suaveolens (L.) Poit., Lantana camara L., Mikania micrantha Kunth, and Parthenium hysterophorus L.), we have predicted their climatically suitable areas across the country under the current and two future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2070). We have developed an ensemble of eight different species distribution modelling approaches to predict the location of climatically suitable areas. Under the current climatic condition, P. hysterophorus had the highest suitable area (18% of the total country’s area) while it was the lowest for M. micrantha (12%). A predicted increase in the currently suitable areas ranges from 3% (M. micrantha) to 70% (A. houstonianum) with the mean value for all six species being 29% under the future climate change scenario for 2050. For four species (A. houstonianum, C. odorata, H. suaveolens and L. camara), additional areas at elevations higher than the current distribution will provide suitable habitat under the projected future climate. In conclusion, all six IAPs assessed are likely to invade additional areas in future due to climate change and these scenarios need to be considered while planning for IAPs management as well as climate change adaptation.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to Published version, in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Historic - Institute for Agriculture and the Environment
Date Deposited: 03 Sep 2018 05:51
Last Modified: 21 Sep 2018 05:27
Uncontrolled Keywords: species distribution modelling, BIOMOD, biological invasions, climate suitability, RCP 4.5
Fields of Research : 05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050209 Natural Resource Management
05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050205 Environmental Management
05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050202 Conservation and Biodiversity
Socio-Economic Objective: D Environment > 96 Environment > 9605 Ecosystem Assessment and Management > 960505 Ecosystem Assessment and Management of Forest and Woodlands Environments
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.07.009
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/34597

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