Multi-stage hybridized online sequential extreme learning machine integrated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo copula-Bat algorithm for rainfall forecasting

Ali, Mumtaz and Deo, Ravinesh C. and Downs, Nathan J. and Maraseni, Tek (2018) Multi-stage hybridized online sequential extreme learning machine integrated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo copula-Bat algorithm for rainfall forecasting. Atmospheric Research, 213. pp. 450-464. ISSN 0169-8095

Abstract

To ameliorate agricultural impacts due to persistent drought-risks by promoting sustainable utilization and pre-planning of water resources, accurate rainfall forecasting models, addressing the dynamic nature of drought phenomenon, is crucial. In this paper, a multi-stage probabilistic machine learning model is designed and evaluated for forecasting monthly rainfall. The multi-stage hybrid MCMC-Cop-Bat-OS-ELM model utilizing online-sequential extreme learning machines integrated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based bivariate-copula and the Bat algorithm is employed to incorporate significant antecedent rainfall (t–1) as the model's predictor in the training phase. After computing the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) at the first stage, twenty-five MCMC based copulas (i.e., Gaussian, t, Clayton, Gumble, Frank and Fischer-Hinzmann etc.) are adopted to determine the dependence of antecedent month's rainfall with the current and future rainfall at the second stage of the model design. Bat algorithm is applied to sort the optimal MCMC-copula model by a feature selection strategy at the third stage. At the fourth stage, PACF's of the optimal MCMC-copula model are computed to couple the output with OS-ELM algorithm to forecast future rainfall values in an independent test dataset. As a benchmarking process, standalone extreme learning machine (ELM) and random forest (RF) is also integrated with MCMC based copulas and the Bat algorithm, yielding a hybrid MCMC-Cop-Bat-ELM and a MCMC-Cop-Bat-RF models. The proposed multi-stage hybrid model is tested in agricultural belt region in Faisalabad, Jhelum and Multan, located in Pakistan. The testing performance of all three hybridized models, according to robust statistical error metrics, is satisfactory in comparison to the standalone counterparts, however the multi-stage, hybridized MCMC-Cop-Bat-OS-ELM model is found to be a superior tool for forecasting monthly rainfall. This multi-stage probabilistic learning model can be explored as a pertinent decision-support tool for agricultural water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions where a statistically significant relationship with antecedent rainfall exists


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to Published version, in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. This study was supported by USQ Postgraduate Scholarship awarded to Mumtaz Ali under Principal Supervision of Dr Ravinesh Deo, co-supervised by Dr nathan Downs and A/Prof Tek Maraseni
Faculty / Department / School: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Agricultural, Computational and Environmental Sciences
Date Deposited: 12 Jul 2018 23:48
Last Modified: 13 Jul 2018 01:44
Uncontrolled Keywords: rainfall forecasting; Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation; Copulas; Bat algorithm; OS-ELMELM; RF
Fields of Research : 08 Information and Computing Sciences > 0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing > 080105 Expert Systems
08 Information and Computing Sciences > 0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing > 080110 Simulation and Modelling
08 Information and Computing Sciences > 0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing > 080108 Neural, Evolutionary and Fuzzy Computation
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl.Climate Change Processes)
Socio-Economic Objective: E Expanding Knowledge > 97 Expanding Knowledge > 970105 Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.07.005
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/34472

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