Climate change impacts on the hydrology of Aldgate and Inverbrakie Creeks in South Australia

Chowdhury, R. K. and Beecham, S. (2012) Climate change impacts on the hydrology of Aldgate and Inverbrakie Creeks in South Australia. In: Water and Climate: Policy Implementation Challenges; Proceedings of the 2nd Practical Responses to Climate Change Conference 2012, 1-3 May 2012, Canberra, Australia.

Abstract

Hydrological projections are essential for the development of climate change adaptation strategies in water resources management. Generally three steps are followed: (1) GCMs are used to predict scenarios of climate variables; (2) an appropriate downscaling technique is used to generate catchment-scale climate projections from the GCM outputs; and (3) a calibrated hydrological model is applied for hydrological scenario development. In this study, climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of two sub-catchments located within the Onkaparinga River catchment in South Australia have been examined. The selected sub-catchments are Aldgate Creek (a perennial creek catchment, of area 7.9 km2 ) and Inverbrakie Creek (an ephemeral creek catchment, of area 8.4 km2 ). Ensembles of daily rainfall scenarios were generated from 2010 to 2030 using a transitional probability matrix model. The SIMHYD conceptual hydrological model was calibrated and validated for both catchments using historical daily rainfall and flow records. Each replicate of generated rainfall represents an equally likely scenario, which was then fed into the SIMHYD model for the generation of hydrological scenarios. Standard hydro-statistical parameters were calculated for the assessment of impacts on creek hydrology. These parameters were divided into categories of low flow, medium flow and high flow. A drier future has been projected for both catchments. Except for March and April, the Aldgate Creek sub-catchment exhibited reductions in flow volumes for all months whereas the Inverbrakie Creek catchment exhibited increased flow volumes during low flow months. Projected decreased peak flows were observed for both catchments. A wide range of variability and uncertainty in projected hydrological characteristics was observed. It was shown that the projections of hydrological impacts differ across the two sub-catchments, even when they are located in the same region. Finally, the importance of developing catchment-scale climate change adaptation strategies is emphasized.


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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Paper)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: © 2012 Engineers Australia
Faculty / Department / School: Historic - Faculty of Engineering and Surveying - Department of Surveying and Land Information
Date Deposited: 27 Jun 2018 01:04
Last Modified: 27 Jun 2018 01:04
Fields of Research : 09 Engineering > 0905 Civil Engineering > 090509 Water Resources Engineering
Socio-Economic Objective: D Environment > 96 Environment > 9609 Land and Water Management > 960999 Land and Water Management of Environments not elsewhere classified
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/34347

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