Suitability of a Transitional Probability Matrix model for catchment scale rainfall projections

Chowdhury, R. K. and Beecham, S. (2012) Suitability of a Transitional Probability Matrix model for catchment scale rainfall projections. In: 9th International Workshop on Precipitation in Urban Areas: Urban Challenges in Rainfall Analysis: UrbanRain12, 6-9 Dec 2012, St. Moritz, Switzerland.


Projecting rainfall and water availability in a changing climate is a well researched area. Stochastic and dynamic downscaling techniques are both currently being used to develop rainfall projections from GCM model outputs. While most of these techniques are adequate for reproducing historical rainfall characteristics, a wide range of variability are generally observed in the generated rainfall projections. These lead to a wide range of variability and uncertainty in hydrological and water availability projections. In this paper, we describe how ensembles of daily rainfall data have been generated from 2035 to 2065 using a Transitional Probability Matrix (TPM) model (CRCCH, 2006) for two catchments located in the South Australian Mount Lofty region. These are the Aldgate Creek catchment (7.9 km2) and the Inverbrakie Creek catchment (8.4 km2). It was found that generated daily rainfalls reproduced well the historical rainfall characteristics for these two catchments. The generated replicates of rainfall from 2035 to 2065 were compared with the CSIRO Mk3 (A2 scenario) generated downscaled rainfall replicates. It was found that while the 50th percentile rainfall projections from both models were well matched, the variability of CSIRO Mk3 generated rainfalls was significantly high in comparision to the TPM model generated rainfalls.

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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Paper)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: © 2018 ETH Zurich
Faculty / Department / School: Historic - Faculty of Engineering and Surveying - Department of Surveying and Land Information
Date Deposited: 27 Jun 2018 03:33
Last Modified: 27 Jun 2018 03:33
Uncontrolled Keywords: Rainfall, transitional probability matrix, climate projection, uncertainty
Fields of Research : 09 Engineering > 0905 Civil Engineering > 090509 Water Resources Engineering
Socio-Economic Objective: D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960304 Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts)

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