Scenario-based planning for tourism development using system dynamic modelling: a case study of Cat Ba Island, Vietnam

Mai, Thanh and Smith, Carl (2018) Scenario-based planning for tourism development using system dynamic modelling: a case study of Cat Ba Island, Vietnam. Tourism Management, 68. pp. 336-354. ISSN 0261-5177

Abstract

Tourism destinations are dynamically complex systems in which behaviour is controlled by many interacting components and feedback loops. Yet tourism destination planning has traditionally been based on forecasting models that rely on historical data to predict future trends.

We exploresystem dynamic modelling as an alternative to forecasting models for the scenario-based planning of tourism destinations. We construct a system dynamic model for tourism development on Cat Ba Island, a rapidly developing tourist destination in Vietnam, and use it to model alternative tourism development scenarios.

Our results indicate that the current trajectory of tourism development on Cat Ba Island is not sustainable and limits to growth may be reached as early as 2022 due to water shortages, pollution and overcrowding. Beyond thistimethedestinationrisksbreachingitslimitstogrowth,whichcreatesafurtherrisk,thatoferodingcarrying capacity through resource depletion and environmental degradation.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to Published version, in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty / Department / School: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 28 May 2018 01:49
Last Modified: 31 May 2018 06:08
Uncontrolled Keywords: scenario planning, system dynamic modelling, sustainable tourism, decision making
Fields of Research : 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services > 1506 Tourism > 150603 Tourism Management
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2018.04.005
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/34158

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