Direct and indirect costs of frost in the Australian wheatbelt

An-Vo, Duc-Anh and Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Zheng, Bangyou and Christopher, Jack T. and Chapman, Scott C. and Chenu, Karine (2018) Direct and indirect costs of frost in the Australian wheatbelt. Ecological Economics, 150. pp. 122-136. ISSN 0921-8009

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Breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance could allow greater yield and economic benefits to be achieved by (i) reducing direct frost damage and (ii) allowing earlier sowing to reduce risks of late-season drought and/or heat stresses. We integrated APSIM-Wheat simulations with economic modelling to evaluate economic benefits of virtual genotypes with different levels of frost tolerance for the Australian wheatbelt.

Results highlighted substantial potential national economic benefits, with estimated industry profit increasing by (i) more than 55% for virtual genotypes with improved frost tolerance in silico, by (ii) 115% when sowing date was optimised for virtual frost-tolerant genotypes, and by (iii) an extra 35% (i.e. 150% in total) when using optimal nitrogen application. The total benefit potential was estimated at AUD 1890 million per annum if all these improvements could be combined. Regional benefits varied. In the West, the main benefits arose from improved frost tolerance reducing losses due to direct frost damage and applying additional nitrogen. In the East, earlier sowing allowed by tolerant genotypes resulted in large economic benefit. Overall, the analysis suggests significant economic benefits to the Australian wheat industry, should a source of frost tolerance be found.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Submitted version deposited in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty / Department / School: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 03 May 2018 05:47
Last Modified: 30 Jan 2019 02:51
Uncontrolled Keywords: frost; wheat; crop modelling; economic modelling; national assessment; Australia; breeding; ideotype
Fields of Research : 14 Economics > 1402 Applied Economics > 140201 Agricultural Economics
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070105 Agricultural Systems Analysis and Modelling
01 Mathematical Sciences > 0103 Numerical and Computational Mathematics > 010303 Optimisation
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.04.008

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