Economic risk implication of land use change in mixed crop-livestock systems as transformative adaptation to climate change

Ghahramani, Afshin and Kokic, Philip (2017) Economic risk implication of land use change in mixed crop-livestock systems as transformative adaptation to climate change. In: 61st Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society (AARES 2017), 7-10 Feb 2017, Brisbane, Australia.

Abstract

Australia’s extensive farming systems examined for implication of changes in landuse allocation to cropping and livestock as transformative adaptation options to climate change in 2030 across Australian wheat belt. Effectiveness evaluated at multiple scales (farm and region) and against multiple criteria (profit, risk, environmental impacts, GHG emissions and community impacts). On the whole, the strategy of shifting to an increased livestock and pasture farming system was a profitable adaptation in drier regions. It proved to be financially advantageous at a number of WA sites, across the whole NSW dry region but not in SA (except at Snowtown where could partly be beneficial). On average this option provides a net benefit of between $9 and $42 per hectare mean cash margin advantage for NSW and WA. Across the SA transect this option proved to be ineffective and resulted in a mean farm cash margin of $11 per hectare lower than the baseline. In broad terms the shift towards a more livestock dominated farming system was better able to provide profitability in years with below average growing conditions (i.e. more frequent in each of the future climate scenarios). The Generalised Pareto (GP) distribution was used to predict the return periods of extreme low incomes. The idea of using the GP distribution to model the tail distribution of a variable was first proposed by Pickands III (1971) and has been developed further by numerous authors. In our case the exponential distribution, a special case of the GP distribution was found to fit the data well.


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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Speech)
Refereed: No
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Files associated with this record may not be displayed.
Faculty / Department / School: Current - Institute for Agriculture and the Environment
Date Deposited: 21 Mar 2018 01:54
Last Modified: 21 Jun 2018 04:26
Fields of Research : 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070107 Farming Systems Research
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070105 Agricultural Systems Analysis and Modelling
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0703 Crop and Pasture Production > 070301 Agro-ecosystem Functionand Prediction
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/33714

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